铁矿石：限购政策刺激反弹，短期仍建议空配

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests short - term under - allocation of iron ore [2][3] 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - Short - term macro expectations are weak, the supply - demand contradiction of iron ore continues to accumulate, supply remains high year - on - year, and iron ore demand is still restricted by industrial chain profits. It is recommended to mainly under - allocate [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - Current foreign ore shipments have emerged from the shipping off - season, with a significant increase in the weekly shipment volume this period. The off - season shipments this year have shown above - seasonal growth, and foreign ore shipments are at the highest level in the same period in the past five years. Domestic ore supply is also expected to enter a seasonal recovery cycle. Overall, the supply side has entered a high - shipping stage, providing a downward driving force [2] Demand - Domestic iron ore demand mainly depends on steel mill profits and the degree of steel inventory reduction. Due to the relatively high temperature this year, construction site starts may be advanced, and the market still has some optimistic expectations for demand. In the short term, the probability of super - expected growth in terminal demand is low. Later, attention should be paid to the steel inventory reduction node and the intensity of resumption of work. Seasonally, molten iron has entered a recovery cycle, and later attention should be paid to the recovery speed and height. From the current steel mill profit level and demand expectations, the recovery speed is relatively gentle, and the upward driving force of demand is weak [2] Inventory - Steel mills still have restocking needs after the Spring Festival, but the intensity and sustainability of restocking still depend on the recovery of terminal demand. From the current port clearance level, port inventories will still be in an accumulation state. Coupled with the weakening of spot prices, it is expected that the pressure of short - term port inventory accumulation will remain high. At the same time, attention should be paid to the potential selling risk of restricted - trade inventories. The inventory driving force is downward [2] Price - The expected price range is 93 - 100 US dollars per ton (61% index), corresponding to Dalian iron ore futures at 710 - 760 yuan per ton [4] Strategy - Conduct range operations and sell call options [4]