养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告-20260226

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Soybean Oil: On Wednesday, the main 05 contract of soybean oil closed at 8,228 in the afternoon, with a daily change of 88 or 1.08%. The spot price of soybean oil generally increased by about 100 yuan/ton compared to before the holiday. With the continuous confrontation between the US and Iran, the international crude oil price remained firm. The expectation of the US biodiesel policy was positive, and the market sentiment was bullish. CBOT soybean oil reached the key level of 60 cents/pound. The inventory of soybeans at Chinese ports decreased year-on-year, and the overall inventory of the three major oils slightly declined from the high level and was lower than the same period last year. The supply - demand fundamentals were gradually improving. It is expected that the upward momentum of soybean oil will continue, and long positions in the main contract are recommended to be held. The support level of the main 05 contract of soybean oil is 8,000 - 8,100 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 8,560 - 8,600 yuan/ton [3]. - Rapeseed Oil: On Wednesday, rapeseed oil futures first declined and then rose. The main 2605 contract closed up 0.38% at 9,244. After the Spring Festival, the number of oil mills starting operations increased, so the supply of rapeseed oil might increase, while the downstream consumption was in the seasonal off - season, and the overall market demand was weak. However, the total amount of Australian rapeseed at ports was limited. There were continuous purchases of Canadian rapeseed for the March - May shipping period, but the arrival situation would still depend on the actual implementation of China - Canada trade relations. Trump's previous tariff actions were ruled illegal by the US court, but he then imposed a new round of tariffs, intensifying the overseas tariff game. Driven by macro factors and the expectation of US biodiesel demand, the price of rapeseed oil is expected to fluctuate with the oil and fat sector, and its own unilateral driving direction is still unclear. Rapeseed oil is expected to be relatively strong following the sector, but be cautious when chasing up. The upper resistance range of the 05 contract is 9,390 - 9,400, and the lower support range is 8,800 - 8,810 [3]. - Palm Oil: On Wednesday, palm oil futures opened lower, rose, and then fell back at the end of the session. The main 2605 contract closed down 0.16% at 8,848. High - frequency data showed that the export of Malaysian palm oil in February decreased significantly month - on - month, and the inventory at the origin was at a high level, putting pressure on the palm oil price. In March, Indonesia will increase the export tariff, which will indirectly benefit the export of Malaysian palm oil. There is still room for trading on the demand side during the Indian Ramadan stocking period, and the downside space of the futures price is expected to be limited. Pay attention to the implementation of the US biodiesel policy expectation in March. After the continuous decline before the festival, the downside space of palm oil may be limited. Consider looking for opportunities to go long on dips. The upper resistance range of the main contract is 9,000 - 9,020, and the lower support range is 8,650 - 8,700 [4]. - Soybean No. 2 and Soybean Meal: On Wednesday, the CBOT soybean 05 contract rose and temporarily closed at around 1,162 cents/bushel in the afternoon; the main 05 contract of soybean meal closed at 2,831 in the afternoon (daily change of 50 or 1.80%); the main 05 contract of soybean No. 2 closed at 3,589 in the afternoon (daily change of 63 or 1.79%). With the positive expectation of biodiesel, the consumption of US soybean crushing was strong, and the export expectations of US soybeans to China and India were not bad. Multiple positive expectations resonated, driving up the price of CBOT soybeans and the prices of Chinese soybean commodities. The inventory of soybeans at Chinese ports decreased year - on - year, and the market was still worried about the soybean supply in China before May. The situation of loose supply of oil and meal may gradually reverse. The valuation of soybean meal is low, and the positive driving factors are gradually emerging. The short - term price of the main soybean meal futures may be strong. Consider lightly laying out long positions. The support level of the main 05 contract of soybean meal is 2,760 - 2,780 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 2,950 - 3,000 yuan/ton. The support level of the main 05 contract of soybean No. 2 is 3,480 - 3,500 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 3,750 - 3,780 yuan/ton [5]. - Rapeseed Meal: On Wednesday, rapeseed meal futures rose first and then fell back. The main 2605 contract closed up 0.57% at 2,312. Driven by the leading rise of soybeans, rapeseed meal followed and was relatively strong. From the perspective of its own fundamentals, after the Spring Festival, the number of oil mills starting operations increased, while the demand entered the consumption off - season. Currently, the total amount of Australian rapeseed at ports is limited; there are continuous purchases of Canadian rapeseed for the March - May shipping period, but the arrival situation will still depend on the actual implementation of China - Canada trade relations. Trump's previous tariff actions were ruled illegal by the US court, but he then imposed a new round of tariffs, intensifying the overseas tariff game. It is recommended to wait and see. Aggressive investors can consider short - term range operations. The lower support level of the RM main contract is 2,190 - 2,200, and the upper resistance level is 2,340 - 2,350 [6]. - Corn and Corn Starch: On Wednesday, the futures prices showed a volatile consolidation trend. In the overseas market, there is a game between the high inventory of US corn and good export performance this year. However, the initial estimate of the planting area of US corn in the new year at the outlook forum decreased significantly, which provided some support for the futures price. The futures price is expected to continue the bottom - building trend. In the domestic market, the decrease in high - quality grain sources year - on - year and the phased supply - demand mismatch support the continuation of the market. The futures price may continue to fluctuate strongly, but considering the relatively high temperature this year, there is still pressure to sell grain after the festival, and the driving force for the improvement of downstream profits is limited. Be cautious about the upside space. It is recommended to wait and see or adopt a short - long thinking. For option operations, it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options. The support range of the corn 2605 contract is 2,240 - 2,250, and the resistance range is 2,380 - 2,400; the support range of the corn starch 05 contract is 2,540 - 2,550, and the resistance range is 2,740 - 2,750 [7]. - Soybean No. 1: On Wednesday, the main contract of soybean No. 1 increased in position and rose during the session, closing at 4,679 in the afternoon (daily change of 46 or 0.99%). Currently, the soybean sources are relatively concentrated, and there is still an expectation of replenishing inventory downstream. The futures price of soybean No. 1 may still be easy to rise and difficult to fall. Consider holding long positions lightly. The resistance level of the 05 contract of soybean No. 1 is 4,800 - 4,850 yuan/ton, and the support level is 4,500 - 4,550 yuan/ton [7]. - Live Pigs: On Wednesday, the futures price of live pigs increased in position and stopped falling and rebounded. After the spot price fell below the cash flow, the breeding side showed a sentiment of reluctant to sell. On the first day after the Spring Festival, the futures price of live pigs opened low and went low to make up for the decline of the spot price during the holiday. The national average price was 10.93 yuan/kg, a decrease of about 0.70 yuan/kg compared to before the holiday. This week, the slaughter volume was at a seasonal low, and slaughtering enterprises were still in losses. In January, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that the inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million, a decrease of 1.16 million or 2.9%. Currently, it is 101.6% of the normal reserve, and the inventory of breeding sows is still relatively sufficient. After the Spring Festival, the price of piglets slightly dropped to about 360 yuan/head, and self - breeding and self - raising returned above the cost. Currently, the far - month contracts of live pig futures show a premium over the near - end spot and near - month contracts. The pressure on the near - end spot is relatively large, and the monthly pattern maintains near - weak and far - strong. Wait for further confirmation of capacity reduction in the medium term, and the far - month premium may continue to widen. Cautious investors can hold long positions in far - month contracts. The 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,000 - 11,200 as the support level and 12,000 - 12,300 as the resistance level. Aggressive investors can wait for the release of spot pressure in the medium term and lightly go long on the 2607 contract below 12,000. For options, hold a covered call strategy combination, that is, hold long futures positions + sell deep out - of - the - money call options. Pay attention to the systematic fluctuations of the agricultural product sector [7]. - Eggs: On Wednesday, the futures price of eggs opened low, rose, and fluctuated widely. After the Spring Festival, the futures price of eggs was strong in the near - term and weak in the far - term. The far - month contracts increased in position and declined to repair the excessive discount to the spot price. After the spot price of eggs dropped to about 2.7 yuan/jin before the festival, it slightly opened higher to around 2.9 yuan/jin in the low - price areas after the festival. Currently, the average cash cost of eggs in the industry has decreased to 2.85 - 2.95 yuan/jin following the prices of corn and soybean meal, and the breeding profit has turned positive. Since farmers have continued to suffer deep losses since the fourth quarter, the number of culled chickens has also increased. At the same time, the number of newly - opened laying hens in February was small, which alleviated the supply pressure to some extent, and the supply - demand pressure may continue to improve. In terms of futures prices, the premium of the far - month peak - season contracts of eggs over the current off - season spot price has widened. Cautious investors are recommended to wait and see. Aggressive investors can go long on the 04 contract below 3,000 points. Be cautious about shorting near - month contracts in the historical low - price range. The support level of the 2604 contract is 3,000 - 3,100 points, and the resistance level is 3,390 - 3,420 points [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Market Analysis - Soybean No. 1 05: The domestic soybean sources are relatively concentrated, and there is still an expectation of replenishing inventory downstream. The price of soybean No. 1 may still be easy to rise and difficult to fall. It is expected to fluctuate strongly. Consider lightly trying long positions [11]. - Soybean No. 2 05: The expectation of US soybeans is positive, driving up the prices of domestic soybeans. Pay attention to whether imported soybeans will be auctioned later. It is expected to fluctuate strongly. Temporarily wait and see [11]. - Soybean Oil 05: The confrontation between the US and Iran has escalated, and the rise of international crude oil has driven up the prices of vegetable oils. The expectation of the US biodiesel policy is positive, and the trends of US soybeans and US soybean oil are strong. The upward driving force of Dalian soybean oil continues. It is expected to rise in a volatile manner. Hold long positions [11]. - Rapeseed Oil 05: There are positive factors, but the own driving direction still needs to pay attention to the evolution of China - Canada and US - Canada trade relations. It is expected to fluctuate strongly. Be cautious about short - term long positions [11]. - Palm 05: The high - frequency export data is negative, but there are still expectations for the supply - demand of Malaysian palm oil in the first quarter. It is expected to run in a volatile manner. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips after stabilizing [11]. - Soybean Meal 05: US soybeans are running strongly, the Brazilian premium is firm, and the downstream consumption of Chinese soybean meal still has resilience. Soybean meal may bottom out and rebound. It is expected to rise in a volatile manner. Consider lightly trying long positions [11]. - Rapeseed Meal 05: The supply - demand is marginally weakening, and the tariff policy is still variable. It is expected to run in a volatile manner. Wait and see or conduct range operations [11]. - Corn 05: There is still pressure to sell grain after the festival, but the phased supply - demand mismatch support still exists. It is expected to fluctuate within a range. Adopt a short - long thinking [11]. - Starch 05: It follows the cost of corn and fluctuates within a range. Adopt a short - long thinking [11]. - Live Pigs 05: The feed price has stopped falling and rebounded, and the expectation of capacity reduction is strengthened. It is expected to find the bottom in a volatile manner. Consider lightly trying long positions [11]. - Eggs 05: The number of newly - opened laying hens has decreased, and there is an expectation of the consumption peak season. It is expected to find the bottom in a volatile manner. Wait and see [11]. 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - Inter - month Arbitrage: For most varieties such as soybean No. 1 3 - 5, soybean No. 2 3 - 5, soybean oil 5 - 9, etc., it is recommended to wait and see. For the corn 5 - 9 spread, it is recommended to go short on rallies [12][13]. - Inter - commodity Arbitrage: For most spreads such as 05 soybean oil - palm oil, 05 rapeseed oil - soybean oil, etc., it is recommended to wait and see. The 05 rapeseed oil - rapeseed meal ratio is treated as bullish [13]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various varieties such as soybean No. 1, soybean No. 2, soybean oil, etc. [14]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Fats and Oils - Daily Data: It includes the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseed, and palm oil from different origins and shipping periods, such as the arrival premium, CBOT futures price, CNF arrival price, and arrival duty - paid price [16][17]. - Weekly Data: It shows the inventory and opening rate of various fats and oils, such as the inventory of soybeans at ports, the inventory of soybean meal at oil mills, etc. [18][19]. 3.2.2 Feed - Daily Data: It provides the import cost data of corn from different countries and months, including CNF price, arrival duty - paid cost, and additional tariffs on the US [19]. - Weekly Data: It includes the consumption, inventory, opening rate, and other data of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises, as well as the grain - selling progress of farmers [20]. 3.2.3 Livestock Farming - Daily Data: It shows the spot prices of live pigs and eggs in different regions and their price changes [20][22]. - Weekly Data: It includes the weekly average prices, breeding costs, profits, slaughter data, and other information of live pigs and eggs [22][23]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - Livestock Farming (Live Pigs and Eggs): It includes the closing prices of live pig and egg futures contracts, spot prices, and other related price charts [25][27][28]. - Fats and Oils: It includes the production, export, inventory, and other data charts of palm oil, soybean oil, and peanuts [35][42][47]. - Feed: It includes the price, inventory, consumption, and other data charts of corn, corn starch, rapeseed meal, and soybean meal [51][64][72]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Fats and Oils It provides the historical volatility charts of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and put -