烧碱节后累库，现货价格小幅上涨

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The current overall supply - demand pattern of PVC remains weak, but the "rush to export" sentiment provides some support to the spot. The market sentiment is expected to improve with the recovery of downstream construction, the increasing expectation of spring maintenance, and the strengthening of macro - expectations. For caustic soda, the spot price has risen slightly due to replenishment by some traders and downstream industries. The market procurement sentiment is expected to improve after the festival as downstream industries resume work and release replenishment demand [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4963 yuan/ton (+15), the East China basis is - 233 yuan/ton (-15), and the South China basis is - 103 yuan/ton (+15) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4730 yuan/ton (+0), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4860 yuan/ton (+30) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 685 yuan/ton (-50), the calcium carbide price is 2780 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is - 58 yuan/ton (+40), the production gross profit of PVC by calcium carbide method is - 596 yuan/ton (+102), the production gross profit of PVC by ethylene method is 113 yuan/ton (-16), and the PVC export profit is 16.3 US dollars/ton (+0.0) [1] - PVC inventory and operation: The in - factory inventory of PVC is 50.5 tons (+19.3), the social inventory of PVC is 61.5 tons (+0.1), the operation rate of PVC by calcium carbide method is 81.18% (+0.40%), the operation rate of PVC by ethylene method is 78.87% (+5.18%), and the overall operation rate of PVC is 80.48% (+1.86%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 80.3 tons (-21.0) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2167 yuan/ton (+197), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is - 201 yuan/ton (-163) [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 629 yuan/ton (+11), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1010 yuan/ton (+10) [2] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 949 yuan/ton (+34), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 147.9 yuan/ton (+34.4), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 204.08 yuan/ton (+34.38), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 796.29 yuan/ton (+56.00) [2] - Caustic soda inventory and operation: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories is 44.29 tons (+0.00), the inventory of flake caustic soda factories is 3.94 tons (+1.16), and the operation rate of caustic soda is 85.60% (-2.00%) [2] - Downstream operation of caustic soda: The operation rate of alumina is 83.18% (-0.28%), the operation rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 0.00% (+0.00%), and the operation rate of viscose staple fiber is 88.43% (+0.15%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - The export tax rebate for PVC was cancelled on April 1st, leading to strong export orders due to the "rush to export". The upstream inventory pressure is not large. The overall supply - demand pattern remains weak. The supply is abundant, and the expectation of spring maintenance in April is increasing. The downstream operation decreased significantly during the Spring Festival and will gradually recover. The social inventory has increased after the festival and is at a high level year - on - year. The production profit of upstream chlor - alkali has been slightly repaired, but it is still at a low level year - on - year. The PVC warehouse receipts are at a high level, and there is still pressure for hedging on the futures market. Although the supply - demand is weak, the "rush to export" sentiment supports the spot, and the market expectation is strong. However, the inventory accumulated during the Spring Festival and the incomplete recovery of downstream operation will keep the short - term supply - demand weak. The market sentiment is expected to improve with the recovery of downstream operation, the increasing expectation of spring maintenance, and the strengthening of macro - expectations [3] Caustic Soda - Some traders and downstream industries replenished their stocks, leading to a slight increase in the spot price of caustic soda. The cost support has weakened compared with before the festival. The supply has decreased slightly as some enterprises in Shandong reduced their production. The inventory of caustic soda in Shandong and Jiangsu has increased during the festival. The demand is average, and the market's motivation to purchase caustic soda is insufficient. There is some purchase demand after the festival. The export orders improved slightly before the festival. The warehouse receipts of caustic soda suppress the futures market, but the market procurement sentiment is expected to improve after the festival [3] Strategy PVC - Unilateral: Short - term oscillation - Inter - delivery: Go long on the spread between V05 and V09 when it is low - Inter - commodity: None [4] Caustic Soda - Unilateral: Short - term oscillation, pay attention to downstream procurement sentiment - Inter - delivery: Go long on the spread between SH04 and SH05 when it is low - Inter - commodity: None [5]