宏观研究：春节假期宏观大事分析

Group 1: Macroeconomic Trends - The 2026 Spring Festival holiday saw a record high of 2.46 billion people traveling, with a daily average of 308 million, marking a 7% increase year-on-year and a 36% increase compared to 2019[10] - Domestic tourism revenue reached 632.69 billion yuan during the Spring Festival, a 47.3% increase year-on-year, with hotel accommodation transactions up 32.7%[18] - The movie box office during the Spring Festival dropped to 5.13 billion yuan, a 46.08% decrease from the previous year, with attendance down 43.02%[22] Group 2: U.S. Tariff Policy Changes - Prior to the U.S. Supreme Court ruling, the effective tariff rate on China was 37%; post-ruling, it could drop to 21.9%, a reduction of 15.1 percentage points[2] - Following the ruling, Trump introduced a 10% tariff under Section 122, which could rise to 15%, bringing the effective tariff back to 36.9% if fully implemented[28] - The reduction in tariffs could potentially increase China's export growth to the U.S. by 4.7%, translating to a 0.54 percentage point increase in overall export growth[29] Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Financial Data - In January, new household deposits decreased by 33.9 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating a trend of funds moving to non-bank financial institutions[36] - The willingness of households to leverage increased, with new short-term loans rising to 109.7 billion yuan, suggesting a potential shift in asset-liability dynamics[37] - M1 and M2 growth rates improved, with M1 growing by 4.9% and M2 by 9%, indicating a recovery in monetary supply dynamics[40]