日度策略参考-20260226

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the near term, the stock index is expected to oscillate strongly supported by the policy - favorable expectations of the "Two Sessions", and long - term long positions in stock index futures are recommended to be held [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank warns of interest - rate risks in the short term, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. - Copper prices are pushed up by recent macro - favorable factors, but the continuous accumulation of global copper inventories suppresses prices, so short - term copper prices are expected to oscillate [1]. - The non - ferrous metal sector is boosted by recent macro - favorable factors, but the large accumulation of domestic aluminum inventories may drag down aluminum prices, and short - term aluminum prices are expected to oscillate [1]. - The deadlock in the US - Iran negotiation causes concerns about Iran's zinc ore supply, which supports zinc prices in the short term. After the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the resumption of work and production of downstream enterprises [1]. - Due to the landslide of the tailings of the QMB project in the Indonesian IMIP Park and the plan to revoke its environmental license, and the reduction of the nickel ore quota in the Weda Bay nickel mine, there are still concerns about nickel ore supply. Short - term nickel prices are expected to run strongly, but the high global nickel inventory may still suppress prices in the medium - to - long term [1]. - The raw material prices of stainless steel remain firm, steel mills' maintenance and production cuts increase in February, and social inventories rise slightly. Affected by the supply - side disturbances in Indonesia, stainless steel futures are expected to oscillate strongly. After the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the demand recovery [1]. - The Trump administration plans to use an AI model to price key minerals, which boosts the sector. Although the long - term trend of tin prices remains unchanged, investors are advised to pay attention to risk management and profit protection in the short - term high - volatility situation [1]. - The uncertainty of tariff policies and the tense geopolitical situation between the US and Iran support precious metals, but the intensifying internal differences of the Federal Reserve may cause short - term fluctuations. Gold prices are expected to oscillate within a range, and silver prices are expected to oscillate strongly [1]. - The new Trump tariff policy and the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East are beneficial to platinum and palladium at the macro level, but after the short - term catch - up, the price rhythm may still fluctuate. It is recommended to go long at low prices with a light position [1]. - For industrial silicon, production increases in the northwest and decreases in the southwest, and the production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon decline in December [1]. - For polysilicon, there is strong demand for energy storage and battery exports, and there are disturbances at the mine end [1]. - For lithium carbonate, the spot has not fully recovered. Observe the spot start - up situation around the Lantern Festival, and it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading [1]. - For rebar and hot - rolled coils, the spot has not fully recovered. Observe the spot start - up situation around the Lantern Festival, and it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading. Look for profit - taking opportunities for the basis positions established before the Spring Festival [1]. - For iron ore, the upward pressure is obvious, and it is not recommended to chase long at this position [1]. - For silicon manganese and silicon iron, the short - term supply and demand are weak, but policy benefits and cost support are positive for prices [1]. - For glass and soda ash, soda ash follows glass. In the medium term, the supply and demand are more relaxed, and prices are under pressure [1]. - For coking coal and coke, the black - metal spot market continues the off - season characteristics before the Spring Festival. In the next two weeks, the market can expect the prosperity of the peak season, which depends on the market risk preference and domestic macro - guidance. In the medium - to - long term, the market is pessimistic about the coking coal 05 contract. It is recommended that the industry establish positive cash - and - carry arbitrage positions when the market rallies, and wait and see for unilateral trading [1]. - For palm oil, the production and exports of Malaysian palm oil decreased from February 1 - 20, and the market is expected to oscillate after the rebound during the holiday [1]. - For soybean oil, it may open higher affected by the US soybean oil, but there is no new driving force for the time being, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - For rapeseed oil, it rose slightly during the holiday, and attention should be paid to the EPA's bio - diesel decision and the anti - dumping arbitration announcement of Canadian rapeseed in China [1]. - For cotton, the new domestic production is expected to be strong, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream start - up is at a low level, but the yarn mill inventory is not high, with rigid restocking demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driving force", and attention should be paid to relevant policies, planting intentions, weather, and peak - season demand [1]. - For sugar, there is a global surplus and an increase in domestic new - crop supply. The short - side consensus is relatively consistent. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support below, but there is no continuous driving force in the short - term fundamentals, and attention should be paid to the change in the capital side [1]. - For corn, the progress of grain sales at the grass - roots level is fast, and the port and channel inventories are low. Corn prices are expected to oscillate strongly during the grain - selling period. After the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the impact of the sale of ground - stored grain, and also to the release of policy grains, import restrictions, and Trump's visit to China [1]. - For soybean meal, the soybean meal market has been strong recently, but in the context of the global large - supply pattern, the short - term unilateral price is expected to oscillate within a range. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade dynamics and the change in Brazilian basis [1]. - For softwood pulp, there is no obvious positive news during the Spring Festival, and the previous supply - side positive factors have basically faded. It is expected to oscillate between 5200 - 5400. Attention should be paid to the port inventory after the Spring Festival [1]. - For logs, the spot price has risen, the arrival volume in February has decreased, and the external - market quotation is expected to rise, so the futures price has an upward driving force [1]. - For live pigs, the spot price has gradually stabilized recently, and the demand support and the unsold slaughter weight indicate that the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. - For fuel oil, OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the US - Iran negotiation is still uncertain, and the commodity - market sentiment is positive with an increase in capital risk preference. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows crude oil [1]. - For asphalt, the raw - material cost support is strong, the commodity - market sentiment is positive, the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, the "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma瑞 crude oil is sufficient, with high asphalt profits [1]. - For natural rubber, the downstream demand will gradually recover after the Spring Festival, the cost of butadiene has strong support, the profit of private butadiene rubber plants is still in a loss, the inventory of BD/BR is expected to accumulate, the short - term futures price is expected to oscillate widely, and there is an upward expectation for butadiene rubber in the medium - to - long term [1]. - For PTA, Asian aromatics are affected by geopolitics, some overseas PTA factories face operational pressure due to poor profits, and the supply is expected to tighten from March to May [1]. - For naphtha, the production profit margin of naphtha cracking has declined, and the demand is continuously weak [1]. - For ethylene, Wanhua Chemical has restarted its 1.2 - million - ton/year cracking unit, and BASF's new 1 - million - ton/year cracking unit in Zhanjiang is expected to supply ethylene from February [1]. - For short - fiber, the price continues to fluctuate closely following the cost [1]. - For energy, geopolitics and Trump's tariffs disrupt the market. The production economic situation of styrene plants is stable, and the profit margin exceeds the variable - cost break - even point. The demand is expected to be affected [1]. - For methanol, the expected import volume is likely to decrease due to the Iranian situation, but there is obvious downstream negative feedback. The downstream MTO leading units are shut down, and some enterprises reduce production. The upstream inventory is generally low, and the downstream inventory is generally medium to high [2]. - For crude oil, it oscillates strongly, the price returns to a reasonable range, the demand is flat during the Spring Festival, and geopolitical factors drive the price up [2]. - For PVC, the global production capacity will be less in 2026, the differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, which will force the elimination of PVC production capacity, and the future expectation is optimistic. However, the current fundamentals are poor, and the export rush has slowed down [2]. - For liquid chlorine, the macro - sentiment has temporarily subsided, the market trades based on fundamentals again. The fundamentals are weak, the absolute price is at a low level, and the spot price has risen slightly with a small subsidy from liquid chlorine [2]. - For LPG, the CP price in February has risen, and the purchase in March is still relatively tight. The premium of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict has rebounded, and the LPG price is strong after the Spring Festival. The overseas cold - wave driving logic is gradually weakening, and the basis is expected to repair and expand. The domestic PDH operating rate has declined, and the profit is expected to seasonally recover. The short - term demand for LPG is bearish, which suppresses the upward movement of the futures price. The port inventory is decreasing, but the domestic civil gas is sufficient, showing a divergence between propane and LPG [2]. - For aviation fuel, the price increase is generally stable, airlines are still cautious about trial resumption of flights, and airlines are expected to have a strong willingness to stop the price decline and raise prices after the off - season in March [2].