黑色金属数据日报-20260226

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Hold [7] - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: Short - term long positions at low prices [7] - Coking Coal and Coke: Hold on single - side trading, look for opportunities to establish cash - and - carry arbitrage when prices rise [7] - Iron Ore: Hold [9] 2. Core Views of the Report - The "Shanghai Seven" real - estate policy and steel mill production restrictions in northern regions provided a short - term rebound drive for the steel futures market, but the spot market response was less than ideal. The inventory is expected to start decreasing after the third week, and the total inventory this year is estimated to be slightly higher than normal. The start of production and construction after the Spring Festival is expected to be favorable, and the "Two Sessions" may release policy signals [2] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese followed the slight rebound of the black metal market. The direct demand is expected to improve with the increase in hot metal production. However, the medium - term supply surplus pressure remains, and policy support and cost increases form price support [3][5] - The real - estate and "Two Sessions" production restriction news drove the coking coal and coke sector to rebound from a low level. The supply side will recover first, while the demand side is restricted by environmental protection and other factors. The rebound is considered a valuation repair and is not expected to be sustainable [5] - The real - estate favorable news, "Two Sessions" blast furnace production restrictions, and potential impact of Brazilian rain on iron ore shipments drove a slight rebound in the iron ore market. The upward drive is still insufficient, and the price is supported but limited by port inventory pressure [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On February 25, the far - month contract closing prices of RB2610, HC2610, etc. had different degrees of increase, with the highest increase of 2.24% for JM2609. The near - month contract closing prices also rose, with the highest increase of 2.32% for J2605 and JM2605. The cross - month spreads, spreads, ratios, and profits of different varieties also had corresponding changes [1] Spot Market - On February 25, the spot prices of Shanghai and other regions' steel products, billets, and iron ore had different degrees of change. For example, the price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil increased by 70 yuan/ton, while the price of Qingdao super - special powder decreased by 6 yuan/ton. The basis of different varieties also changed [1] Steel - The "Shanghai Seven" real - estate policy and steel mill production restrictions in northern regions drove the futures price to rebound on Wednesday, but the spot market response was not ideal. The inventory is in the process of accumulation and is expected to start decreasing after the third week. The total inventory this year is estimated to be slightly higher. The start of production and construction after the Spring Festival is expected to be favorable, and the "Two Sessions" may release policy signals [2] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - They followed the slight rise of the black metal market. The direct demand is expected to improve with the increase in hot metal production. The alloy plants' overall profit is under pressure but has improved. The production and start - up rate are lower than last year, and the supply surplus pressure remains. The cost support is strengthened, and the industrial policy affects supply [3][5] Coking Coal and Coke - The real - estate and "Two Sessions" production restriction news drove the sector to rebound from a low level. The domestic spot market has not started, the supply side will recover first, and the demand side is restricted by environmental protection and other factors. The rebound is a valuation repair and is not expected to be sustainable. The market is pessimistic about the coking coal 05 contract, and it is recommended to establish cash - and - carry arbitrage when the price rises [5] Iron Ore - The real - estate favorable news, "Two Sessions" blast furnace production restrictions, and potential impact of Brazilian rain on shipments drove a slight rebound. The upward drive is insufficient, and the price is supported but limited by port inventory pressure [6]