贵金属日报：美关税政策成为短期主线，避险情绪升温-20260226

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Go short on the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] 2. Core View of the Report - The US tariff policy has become the short - term main line, and the risk - aversion sentiment has increased. The US is imposing anti - subsidy taxes on solar cell components from India, Indonesia, and Laos, and may take tariff measures against China. If the US takes restrictive measures, China will take necessary measures to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests. Due to the increased market risk sentiment, the demand for gold as a safe - haven investment may increase. Gold and silver are expected to maintain a volatile and bullish pattern [1][8][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The US will impose anti - subsidy taxes on crystalline silicon solar cell components imported from India, Indonesia, and Laos. The general subsidy rates for Indian, Indonesian, and Laotian producers/ exporters are set at 125.87%, 104.38%, and 80.67% respectively. The US may also take tariff measures against China, and China will defend its rights if the US proceeds with relevant actions [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On February 25, 2026, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 1144.80 yuan/gram, closed at 1151.06 yuan/gram, with a 0.05% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41087 lots, and the open interest was 129725 lots. The night - session closed at 1153.90 yuan/gram, up 0.25% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 22205.00 yuan/kilogram, closed at 23029.00 yuan/kilogram, with a 3.14% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 413159 lots, and the open interest was 182667 lots. The night - session closed at 23365 yuan/kilogram, up 1.46% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On February 25, 2026, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.050%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasury yields was 0.585%, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3] Position and Trading Volume Changes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2604 contract, the long positions changed by 2401 lots, and the short positions changed by - 774 lots compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts was 270082 lots, a 52.62% change from the previous trading day. On the Ag2604 contract, the long positions changed by 4844 lots, and the short positions changed by 6908 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 981009 lots, a 91.04% change from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,094.19 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 16,108 tons, an increase of 278 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On February 25, 2026, the domestic premium for gold was 7.03 yuan/gram, and for silver was 319.04 yuan/kilogram. The ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 49.98, a - 3.00% change from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 58.65, a - 0.95% change from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On February 25, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T + d market was 29252 kilograms, a 7.13% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 244086 kilograms, a 21.67% change from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 30 kilograms [7] Strategy - Gold: It is expected that the gold price will be mainly in a volatile and bullish pattern in the near future, and the oscillation range of the Au2604 contract may be between 1100 yuan/gram and 1200 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: It is expected to maintain a volatile and bullish pattern, and the oscillation range of the Ag2604 contract may be between 22500 yuan/kilogram and 24000 yuan/kilogram [9] - Arbitrage: Go short on the gold - silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9]