硅价持续震荡，去库过程艰难

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon price is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations. The supply side has significantly contracted, providing obvious price support, but the high inventory of polysilicon always suppresses demand, and the price lacks upward momentum. In the context of weak supply and demand, attention should be paid to the resumption plans of large factories after the Spring Festival and changes in capital sentiment. The upward height depends on the recovery of downstream demand and inventory destocking progress, while the downward space is limited by cost support and production - cut expectations [1][2]. - Polysilicon price is expected to continue to fluctuate. Although the supply side contracted significantly in February, providing support for the price, the demand side remained sluggish due to downstream cost drag, and the large - scale inventory destocking was slow, suppressing the price increase. There is no obvious driving force for the "rush to export" phenomenon before April, and the market is waiting for the supply - demand game. After the Spring Festival, silicon wafer enterprises resumed work, but inventory pressure still exists. The recent sharp rise in international silver prices has increased the cost pressure on battery manufacturers. In the short term, attention should be paid to the supply - demand recovery after the Spring Festival, and in the medium - to - long term, attention should be paid to the silver price trend and inventory destocking progress [2][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On February 25, 2026, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated and rose. The main contract 2605 opened at 8380 yuan/ton and closed at 8430 yuan/ton, a change of 25 yuan/ton (0.3%) from the previous day's settlement. As of the close, the main contract 2605 held 313,959 lots. On February 24, 2026, the total number of warehouse receipts was 20,817 lots, a change of 840 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon declined. According to SMM data, the price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9200 - 9300 (-50) yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9500 - 9800 (0) yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 price was 8600 - 8800 (0) yuan/ton, and 99 silicon price was 8600 - 8800 (0) yuan/ton. Silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained flat, and the 97 silicon price was stable [1]. - SMM statistics showed that the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions on February 12 was 557,000 tons, a decrease of 0.89% from the previous week [1]. - According to SMM statistics, the quotation of organic silicon DMC was 13,800 - 14,000 (0) yuan/ton. During the Spring Festival, the demand for downstream polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy all decreased to varying degrees, and after the festival, most inquiries were tentative [1]. - After the Spring Festival, the market sentiment was flat, and combined with the traditional off - season and production cuts by large factories, the supply side shrank [1]. Strategy - The price of industrial silicon is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations. In the short term, conduct range trading. There are no strategies for inter - delivery spread, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options [2]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On February 25, 2026, the main contract 2605 of polysilicon futures fluctuated and declined, opening at 47,405 yuan/ton and closing at 47,630 yuan/ton, with a closing price change of - 0.76% from the previous trading day. The main contract held 38,292 lots (37,729 lots the previous trading day), and the trading volume on the day was 5,136 lots [2]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. According to SMM statistics, the price of N - type material was 48.50 - 57.50 (0.00) yuan/kg, and the price of n - type granular silicon was 49.00 - 51.00 (0.00) yuan/kg [2]. - According to SMM statistics, the inventory of polysilicon manufacturers increased, and so did the silicon wafer inventory. The latest statistics showed that the polysilicon inventory was 34.90, with a month - on - month change of 2.30%, the silicon wafer inventory was 30.06GW, with a month - on - month change of 6.14%, the weekly polysilicon production was 20,100.00 tons, with a month - on - month change of 0.00%, and the silicon wafer production was 10.05GW, with a month - on - month change of - 3.18% [2]. Strategy - The price of polysilicon is expected to continue to fluctuate. In the short term, conduct range trading, and the main contract is expected to maintain oscillations in the short term. There are no strategies for inter - delivery spread, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options [5][7]. Silicon Wafers, Battery Cells, and Components - Silicon wafers: The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.13 (0.00) yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.43 (0.00) yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.23 (0.00) yuan/piece [3]. - Battery cells: The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 (0.00) yuan/W; PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; TopconM10 battery cells were about 0.44 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.44 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon210RN battery cells were 0.44 (0.00) yuan/W; HJT210 half - cell battery was 0.37 (0.00) yuan/W [3]. - Components: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 (0.00) yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.73 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.75 - 0.77 (0.00) yuan/W [4]. - The 500,000 - kilowatt sand - control and desertification - prevention photovoltaic integration project in Dalate Banner, invested and constructed by Inner Mongolia Energy Group, has been fully connected to the grid for power generation. The project uses Longi Green Energy's BC second - generation technology Hi - MO 9 component products, marking the large - scale application of this high - efficiency photovoltaic technology in large - scale new energy bases in desert, gobi, and desert areas in China [4].