现货市场恢复尚需时间

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Core Viewpoints - The spot market needs time to recover, and the downstream is still on holiday, so the spot premium is difficult to perform. Overseas uncertainties still exist, and attention should be paid to the risk of mineral resource protection spillover. The inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival is similar to that of previous years, and attention should be paid to the subsequent destocking rhythm. The TC at the mine end is still low, which supports the price. The sulfuric acid price continues to strengthen, and the comprehensive smelting loss narrows. Optimistic expectations are maintained for long - term macro and actual consumption, and opportunities for buying and hedging at low prices should be sought [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Market - LME zinc spot premium is -$31.93 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 24,530 yuan per ton, a change of - 120 yuan per ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 45 yuan per ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 24,490 yuan per ton, a change of - 120 yuan per ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 115 yuan per ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 24,500 yuan per ton, a change of - 110 yuan per ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 75 yuan per ton [1] Futures Market - On February 25, 2026, the main contract of SHFE zinc opened at 24,515 yuan per ton, closed at 24,645 yuan per ton, a decrease of 10 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 52,469 lots, and the open interest was 26,600 lots. The highest price during the day was 24,705 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 24,455 yuan per ton [2] Inventory - As of February 25, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven places monitored by SMM was 209,700 tons, a change of 49,400 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 99,825 tons, a change of - 1,425 tons from the previous trading day [3]