郑棉持续走强，白糖小幅反弹

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for cotton, sugar, and pulp is neutral [3][7][9] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For cotton, the USDA's outlook for the 2026/27 season indicates a tightening supply - demand pattern globally, with reduced production, increased consumption, and lower ending stocks. In China, the textile market is expected to resume trading, and long - term cotton prices may rise due to reduced planting area in Xinjiang [2] - For sugar, the short - to - medium - term global sugar surplus will suppress prices, but long - term supply has potential positive factors. The domestic sugar production is expected to increase, and import policy changes may support the market [5] - For pulp, the global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to ease in 2026, and the demand is expected to improve compared to last year, but the high port inventory may keep prices in a low - level consolidation [8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the cotton 2605 contract was 15,380 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan/ton (+0.62%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 16,037 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF05 + 657; the national average price was 16,329 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF05 + 949. From February 13 to 19, the US graded and inspected 16,100 tons of cotton for the 2025/26 season, with 77.2% meeting ICE delivery requirements [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the 2026/27 global cotton production is expected to be 25.26 million tons (down 3.2% year - on - year), consumption 26.15 million tons (up 1.2% year - on - year), and ending stocks 15.5 million tons (down 5.2% year - on - year). Domestically, the textile market is expected to resume trading, and long - term cotton prices may rise due to reduced planting area in Xinjiang [2] Strategy - The short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton may be volatile and slightly stronger, but the short - term uptrend may be suppressed by the internal - external price difference [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the sugar 2605 contract was 5,248 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton (+0.36%) from the previous day. The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,330 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SR05 + 82; the spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,170 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SR05 - 78. The NFCSF in India called for an increase of 600 million liters in the B - heavy molasses ethanol quota [4] Market Analysis - The short - to - medium - term global sugar surplus will suppress the raw sugar price, but long - term supply has potential positive factors. The domestic sugar production is expected to increase, and import policy changes may support the market [5] Strategy - After the holiday, attention should be paid to the selling pressure of increased domestic sugar production, and the price may bottom out again. Import sugar policy changes also need attention [7] Pulp Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the pulp 2605 contract was 5,348 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (+0.15%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,375 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SP05 + 27; the spot price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,965 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SP05 - 383. The import wood pulp spot market prices were strong but with sparse transactions [7] Market Analysis - In 2026, the global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to ease, and the demand is expected to improve compared to last year, but the high port inventory remains a problem [8] Strategy - The pulp price may remain in a low - level consolidation in the short term due to limited improvement in fundamentals and high port inventory [9]