政策利好提振，钢价低位回升

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillation [1][2] - Iron Ore: Oscillation with a downward bias [2][3] - Coking Coal and Coke: Oscillation [5][6] - Thermal Coal: No specific strategy provided [6] 2. Core Views - Steel prices have rebounded from low levels due to policy support, but the supply - demand situation remains complex with supply stable and demand weak, and the policy effect needs further evaluation [1] - Iron ore prices have slightly rebounded, but the supply is strong and demand is weak, with high inventory pressure and short - term downward pressure [2] - Coking coal and coke prices are oscillating. Coke is short - term stable with attention on cost and downstream复产, while coking coal is short - term oscillating with attention on power coal and coal mine复产 [5] - Thermal coal prices are oscillating. In the medium - long term, the supply is loose, and attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and restocking [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Market Analysis: The futures market strengthened. The rebar futures main contract closed at 3076 yuan/ton, up 1.62%, and the hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3236 yuan/ton, up 1.28%. The spot market was stable with individual adjustments, and trading sentiment improved after the holiday [1] - Supply - Demand Logic: There is an accumulation of industrial contradictions under the situation of stable supply and weak demand, and steel prices are still under pressure. Policy expectations and cost support are relatively favorable. Hot - rolled coil prices have rebounded due to policy support and production restrictions, but the supply pressure remains, and the upward drive needs to be tracked [1] - Strategy: Oscillation [1][2] Iron Ore - Market Analysis: Iron ore prices oscillated slightly upward. On February 25, the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan Port were stronger than the previous working day. The trading volume on the 25th was 468,000 tons, a 15.56% increase from the previous day [2] - Supply - Demand Logic: The global shipping volume increased by 23.5% compared with the previous period and significantly increased compared with the same period last year. The blast furnace operating rate and daily average pig iron output of steel mills increased slightly. However, steel mills have completed restocking, and speculative demand has declined. Port inventory decreased, and steel mill inventory increased significantly. The supply is strong and demand is weak, and the high - inventory pressure needs to be resolved through price cuts [2] - Strategy: Oscillation with a downward bias [2][3] Coking Coal and Coke - Market Analysis: The coke main contract closed at 1674.0 yuan/ton (+38.0, +2.32%), and the coking coal main contract closed at 1211.0 yuan/ton (+85.0, +7.02%). The policy of a 5 - yuan price - volume reward at the pithead during the Spring Festival continued until the 28th, and the overall situation was stable. Coal mines in the production area gradually resumed work [5] - Supply - Demand Logic: Coke is short - term stable, with attention on the cost of charging coal and downstream复产. Coking coal supply declined during the Spring Festival, and speculative demand weakened. After the festival, supply and demand will recover, and the复产 rhythm determines the pattern. The current inventory is low, and it is short - term oscillating [5] - Strategy: Oscillation for both coking coal and coke [5][6] Thermal Coal - Market Analysis: In the production area, coal prices oscillated strongly. Some coal mines gradually resumed production and sales, and supply slowly increased. At the port, the market continued to operate strongly, with low inventory and traders reluctant to sell. Imported coal prices were strongly supported due to policy disturbances in Indonesia [6] - Supply - Demand Logic: Supply and demand will gradually recover after the festival, and coal prices will oscillate. In the medium - long term, the supply is loose [6] - Strategy: No specific strategy provided [6]