天然橡胶社会库存环比增加

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a cautious and bullish rating for both RU, NR, and BR [11] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overseas natural rubber supply has entered the seasonal off - season, which may continue to drive up overseas raw material prices, and the cost - side support for rubber remains strong. Although domestic tire factories will gradually resume work and the operating rate will pick up, the terminal domestic sales are still in the off - season. Rubbers prices are expected to remain strong, but the large domestic arrivals will lead to a short - term inventory build - up in China [11] - For BR, the supply is abundant due to fewer upstream maintenance devices and increased production loads in some private plants in North China. With the resumption of work in domestic tire factories, demand will improve month - on - month. BR is in a situation of both supply and demand growth, and cost - side support remains due to stable upstream butadiene prices [11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 17,240 yuan/ton, up 210 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 13,980 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 13,045 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan/ton [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 17,050 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton; the price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 16,000 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton; the price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 2,070 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars/ton; the price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 2,035 US dollars/ton, up 40 US dollars/ton; the ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 13,000 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton; the market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 12,800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] Market Information - In January 2026, Thailand exported 214,000 tons of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber), a year - on - year decrease of 10%. Exports to China were 77,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13% [2] - After the Spring Festival, the resumption of work in domestic tire enterprises was generally stable, with semi - steel tire orders performing better than all - steel tires. The inventory replenishment after the festival drove the rapid recovery of the operating rate, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to continue to increase in March. However, rising raw material costs have squeezed profits, and tire enterprises still face cost pressure [2] - In January 2026, EU passenger car market sales decreased by 3.9% to 799,625 vehicles, marking a challenging start for the second consecutive year [2] - In 2025, the United States imported a total of 286.15 million tires, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. Imports from China decreased by 15% to 21.06 million tires, while imports from Thailand increased by 10% to 73.51 million tires [3] - In 2025, Vietnam exported 719,000 tons of natural rubber, a year - on - year decrease of 10%. Exports to China were 265,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5% [4] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On February 25, 2026, the RU basis was - 190 yuan/ton (+40), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 1,240 yuan/ton (+60), the NR basis was 369.00 yuan/ton (- 101.00); whole latex was 17,050 yuan/ton (+250), mixed rubber was 16,000 yuan/ton (+150), 3L spot was 17,300 yuan/ton (+100). The STR20 was quoted at 2,070 US dollars/ton (+15), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 250 yuan/ton (+150); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,800 yuan/ton (- 50) [5] - Raw materials: Thai smoked sheets were 71.17 Thai baht/kg (+2.38), Thai latex was 67.30 Thai baht/kg (+0.30), Thai cup lump was 56.50 Thai baht/kg (+0.30), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 10.80 Thai baht/kg (unchanged) [6] - Operating rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 12.37% (- 28.18%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 12.20% (- 44.20%) [7] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 667,720 tons (+60,963), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 1,366,518 tons (+69,963), the RU futures inventory was 112,570 tons (+500), and the NR futures inventory was 50,803 tons (- 201) [7] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On February 25, 2026, the BR basis was - 345 yuan/ton (+95), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 10,400 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 13,000 yuan/ton (+200), the price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 12,800 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 12,300 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,816 yuan/ton (- 49) [8] - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 82.03% (+2.40%) [9] - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 8,320 tons (+2,210), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 45,150 tons (+17,350) [10]