新能源及有色金属日报：津巴布韦锂矿遭禁运，碳酸锂震荡上行-20260226

Market Analysis - On February 25, 2026, the main contract of lithium carbonate 2605 opened at 164,500 yuan/ton and closed at 166,480 yuan/ton, with a 3.40% change in the closing price compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 322,727 lots, and the open interest was 377,037 lots, compared to 365,180 lots in the previous trading day. The current basis is -7,230 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures). The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 38,525 lots, a change of -330 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is quoted at 158,000 - 165,500 yuan/ton, a change of 9,750 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is quoted at 155,000 - 161,500 yuan/ton, also a change of 9,750 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 2,250 US dollars/ton, a change of 140 US dollars/ton from the previous day [2]. - On February 25, the Ministry of Mines in Zimbabwe announced an immediate suspension of all exports of raw ores and lithium concentrates (including in - transit goods) to strengthen mineral supervision and accountability. Only enterprises with valid mining rights and approved concentrators will be eligible for exports in the future, and agents and third - party traders are prohibited from exporting. In 2025, China imported about 1.2 million tons of lithium ore from Zimbabwe. This export ban is expected to have a strong short - term impact on lithium ore supply, but considering the high policy uncertainty in the region, the duration of the ban needs to be continuously monitored [2]. - According to the latest SMM statistics, the spot inventory is 102,932 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,531 tons. Among them, the smelter inventory is 16,920 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,436 tons; the downstream inventory is 44,492 tons, a month - on - month increase of 835 tons; and other inventories are 41,520 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,930 tons. The inventory continues the destocking trend, but the post - holiday inventory changes still need to be observed [2]. Core View - After the holiday, the demand side remains in a hot state, and whether the supply side can be quickly replenished will be the key to the market trend. Considering that lithium carbonate will still face a tight supply situation in the short term, it is expected that lithium carbonate will maintain a relatively strong oscillating trend in the short term [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Buy on dips [4] - Inter - period: None [4] - Cross - variety: None [4] - Spot - futures: None [4] - Options: None [4]