镍矿供给紧张态势助推镍不锈钢持续上涨

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The tight supply situation of nickel ore has boosted the continuous rise of nickel and stainless steel. Due to the contraction expectation of nickel ore supply and macro - factors, nickel and stainless steel prices are expected to maintain a strong - side oscillatory trend, but are still suppressed by high inventory and weak demand, so the strategy is mainly range - based operation [1][3][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - Futures: On February 25, 2026, the main contract 2605 of Shanghai nickel opened at 139,000 yuan/ton and closed at 141,250 yuan/ton, a 2.32% change from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 221,614 (+88,557) lots, and the open interest was 38,264 (37,428) lots. The overnight LME nickel rose 3.64% to $17,915/ton, and the global non - ferrous metal sector generally rose, boosting the confidence of domestic Shanghai nickel bulls. The domestic non - ferrous metals in the commodity market were all in the green, and Shanghai nickel followed the sector to strengthen with obvious capital inflow [1] - Nickel Ore: After the Spring Festival, the trading atmosphere in the nickel ore market gradually recovered. The Indonesian market slightly declined due to the benchmark price adjustment, but the price of imported Philippine ore continued to rise. Philippine mines' quotes continued to rise, while the domestic market mainly adopted a wait - and - see attitude [1] - Spot: The nickel price continued to rise during the day, and the overall spot trading of refined nickel turned cold. Most traders still used the Shanghai nickel 2603 as the quotation contract. The spot premiums and discounts of various brands of refined nickel were generally stable, and the spot premium of Jinchuan resources continued to decline. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by - 350 yuan/ton to 8,550 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to - 50 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 53,177 (1253) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 287,808 (480) tons [2] Strategy - The supply of nickel ore is expected to remain in a contraction state due to Indonesian policies and the rainy season. Coupled with macro - factors, the nickel price is expected to maintain a strong - side oscillatory trend. However, the price is still suppressed by high inventory and weak demand, so the strategy is mainly range - based operation. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - Futures: On February 25, 2026, the main contract 2604 of stainless steel opened at 14,150 yuan/ton and closed at 14,245 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 102,416 (+33,299) lots, and the open interest was 84,875 (-4,171) lots. The stainless steel main contract opened slightly higher, oscillated upward, and closed with a small positive line, following the non - ferrous metal sector to operate strongly, with a smaller increase than Shanghai nickel. The overnight LME nickel rose sharply, and LME copper/LME tin also strengthened synchronously. The domestic non - ferrous futures were all in the green, and stainless steel followed the sector sentiment to rise, with a dominant long - side atmosphere. The Shanghai nickel 2603 rose 2.32%, the nickel iron price rebounded, and the cost line of stainless steel increased, providing bottom support for the futures price [3] - Spot: After the Spring Festival, the resumption of work was gradually promoted. The inquiring and trading activities in the spot market increased, and traders' quotes rose. The market had a preliminary expectation of the demand recovery in March. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 14,300 (+100) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was 14,300 (+150) yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B were 135 to 335 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 16.50 yuan/nickel point to 1,070.0 yuan/nickel point [4] Strategy - Affected by the macro - level interest rate cut expectation and the support of the nickel price at the cost end, the stainless steel price is expected to maintain a strong - side oscillatory trend. However, the price is still suppressed by high inventory and weak demand, so the strategy is mainly range - based operation. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [5]