PTA春节累库，现货基差偏弱

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a moderately bullish stance on PX/PTA/PF/PR in the medium term, while also advising to monitor the impact of the Iran situation on crude oil prices [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - Cost side: The market focus is on the Iran situation. Tensions have led to a rebound in crude oil prices, but fundamentals remain weak. If the situation eases, oil prices may experience a catch - up decline. PX's floating price has changed little. Asian PX operating rates have increased, but the short - term fundamentals are weak due to downstream polyester production cuts during the Spring Festival. However, the medium - term outlook is positive, depending on PX maintenance in March. TA's spot basis is weak, and there is inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival. But with maintenance and demand recovery in March, inventory is expected to decrease. In the long - run, as the capacity expansion cycle ends, PTA processing fees are expected to improve [1] - Demand side: Polyester operating rates have decreased, and inventory has started to accumulate during the Spring Festival. After the festival, most factories plan to resume sales and shipments around February 23 - 24. PF production profits have declined, and short - fiber factory inventory has increased. PR's spot processing fees have decreased, but the post - festival market price is expected to be moderately strong, and the spot is expected to remain tight [2] 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Figures include TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [7][8][10] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures cover PX processing fees (PXN: PX China CFR - Naphtha Japan CFR), PTA spot processing fees, South Korean xylene isomerization profits, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profits [16][18] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures involve toluene US - Asia spreads (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea), toluene South Korea FOB - Japan Naphtha CFR, and PTA export profits [23][25] Upstream PX and PTA Operations - Figures show China's PTA load, South Korea's PTA load, Taiwan's PTA load, China's PX load, and Asian PX load [26][29][31] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures include PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [36][38][39] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures cover filament sales, short - fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rates, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine operating rates, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing operating rates [47][49][57] PF Detailed Data - Figures include 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn operating rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, pure polyester yarn factory inventory available days, and polyester - cotton yarn factory inventory available days [70][80][82] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures involve polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fees, bottle - chip export processing fees, bottle - chip export profits, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip spread, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [85][87][93]