市场观望情绪仍相对较重，铅价或维持震荡格局

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating is cautiously bearish [3] 2. Core View - The lead market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand around the Spring Festival, with continuously increasing inventory. There is a divergence in the operating rates of primary lead and secondary lead, and the secondary lead has been in a state of continuous losses. The consumption of terminal lead - acid battery enterprises has dropped to zero, and the social inventory has reached a new high in nearly 5 months. After the Spring Festival, the resumption of secondary lead production is earlier than the downstream inventory digestion, intensifying the supply - demand mismatch. The lead price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On February 25, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$49.85/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,525 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 100 yuan/ton to -50.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price remained unchanged at 16,600 yuan/ton, and the SMM Henan lead spot price remained unchanged at 16,550 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium remained unchanged at 16,600 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries increased by 100 yuan/ton to 9,925 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells increased by 100 yuan/ton to 10,075 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells increased by 75 yuan/ton to 10,275 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On February 25, 2026, the main contract of SHFE lead opened at 16,655 yuan/ton and closed at 16,735 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 67,705 lots, an increase of 12,420 lots from the previous trading day. The positions for the whole trading day were 71,996 lots, an increase of 2,284 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,840 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,650 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of SHFE lead opened at 16,715 yuan/ton and closed at 16,790 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the afternoon close of the previous day. According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price remained unchanged from the previous trading day. In Henan, some suppliers offered discounts of 230 - 220 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2604 contract or 200 - 180 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2603 contract, with a small amount of low - price shipments. Some suppliers insisted on a discount of 150 yuan/ton to the 2604 contract. In Hunan, smelters sold at a premium of 20 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead to deal with the inventory during the Spring Festival holiday. In Guangdong, smelters offered a premium of 100 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead for ex - factory sales. After the Spring Festival, the downstream's enthusiasm for restocking was poor, mainly digesting the inventory reserved before the festival, and the market was in a wait - and - see mood [2] Inventory - On February 25, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 64,000 tons, an increase of 10,100 tons compared with the same period last week. As of February 25, the LME lead inventory was 286,300 tons, a decrease of 25 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - For the main contract of SHFE lead, it is recommended to sell high and buy low in the range of 16,350 - 16,900 yuan/ton. In the first week after the Spring Festival, it is recommended to mainly conduct sell - hedging on rallies, pay attention to the resistance level of 16,950 yuan/ton, and the support level is 16,300 yuan/ton. On the spot side, postpone inventory preparation and wait for the discount to expand to more than 200 yuan/ton before intervening. Focus on the downstream's resumption of work and inventory reduction rhythm after the Lantern Festival. For options, sell call options [3]