马士基3月第二周价格下调，关注其他船司3月份价格跟随情况

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Monitor the price - following situation of other shipping companies in March after Maersk's price cut in the second week of March [1] - The 04 contract's volatility is expected to increase, and investors should participate with caution. There are opportunities for arbitrage such as going long on EC2606 and short on EC2610, or going long on EC2607 and short on EC2610 [6][7] - Pay attention to whether the current freight rates can stabilize in the second half of March, and whether the freight volume from the Far East to Europe can significantly increase in March [6] - In the long - term, the expectation of price increases in the peak season is strong, and the volatility is expected to remain high. The resumption of the Suez Canal is expected to be a gradual process [7] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Futures Prices - As of February 25, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures is 63,784.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 44,121.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts are 1278.60, 1659.00, 1730.30, 1158.20, and 1444.50 respectively [8] 3.2 Spot Prices - On February 13, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price is 1361 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price is 1787 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price is 2524 US dollars/FEU. On February 23, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) is 1573.51 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) is 1112.01 points [8] 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - Static supply: As of January 31, 2026, 6 container ships have been delivered in 2026, with a total capacity of 46,950 TEU. In terms of delivery expectations, for 12,000 - 16,999 TEU ships, 737,400 TEU (50 ships) will be delivered in the remaining months of 2026, 944,600 TEU (64 ships) in 2027, 1,212,000 TEU (82 ships) in 2028, and 415,400 TEU (29 ships) in 2029. For ships over 17,000 TEU, 192,900 TEU (8 ships) will be delivered in the remaining months of 2026, 862,800 TEU (40 ships) in 2027, 1,603,000 TEU (80 ships) in 2028, and 1,261,500 TEU (77 ships) in 2029. The delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small [4] - Dynamic supply: The average weekly capacity from China to European base ports in March is 290,100 TEU, and the capacities in weeks 10/11/12/13/14 are 169,500/360,200/303,100/299,400/318,900 TEU respectively. The average weekly capacity in April is 310,000 TEU, and the capacities in weeks 15/16/17/18 are 333,800/308,900/305,500/291,800 TEU respectively. There are 8 blank sailings and 4 TBNs in March [5] 3.4 Supply Chain - Geopolitical situation: The US military has started to deploy six additional F - 22 stealth fighters to the Middle East, and they are expected to be deployed at an Israeli Air Force base [3] - Red Sea resumption: The resumption of the Suez Canal is expected to be a gradual process. COSCO management indicates that there is still no clear schedule for the full resumption of the Red Sea. It may take 3 - 5 months from the attempt to full resumption. Maersk will adjust its routes to pass through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal [7] 3.5 Demand and European Economy - Policy impact: The cancellation of the VAT export tax rebate for products such as photovoltaics may disrupt the shipping rhythm of related industries and further affect the pricing strategies of shipping companies [6] - Seasonal characteristics: In normal years, April and October are the months with the lowest freight rates. The freight volume from March to April is relatively weak, and shipping companies may issue price increase letters every month from March to August [6][7]