锂行业专题：供需趋紧+低库存，重视春季行情

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lithium industry is "Outperform" [1] Core Views - Supply: The rebound in lithium prices has stimulated supply, but short-term increments are limited. Australian lithium mines are stabilizing production, while South American salt lakes are experiencing slower-than-expected ramp-up in capacity. Zimbabwe has tightened export policies, which may impact supply in the short term [3][12][16]. - Demand: Domestic demand for power batteries is expected to peak, with energy storage becoming a significant marginal variable for lithium salt demand. Global lithium demand is projected to reach approximately 2 million tons LCE in 2026, driven by a 50% year-on-year increase in energy storage battery demand and a 20% growth in power battery demand [5][6]. - Balance Sheet: Supply and demand are tightening, with inventory cycles further declining. Global lithium supply and demand are expected to be around 2 million tons LCE, and any unexpected demand increase could create a significant supply gap. The current inventory cycle for lithium salts in China is less than one month, indicating a tightening market [6][31]. Supply Summary - Overseas Supply: Australian lithium mines are stabilizing production, but the recovery of suspended projects is slow. South American salt lakes have many new projects, but their ramp-up progress is below expectations. Zimbabwe's recent export policy changes may temporarily affect supply [3][12][16]. - Domestic Supply: Domestic lithium spodumene mines have not yet entered large-scale production. The supply disruptions in lithium mica have not been resolved, and new projects in domestic lithium salt lakes are expected to contribute some incremental supply [4][20][27]. Demand Summary - The demand for lithium is expected to be driven by both power and energy storage batteries, with a projected global demand of around 2 million tons LCE in 2026. The energy storage battery demand is expected to significantly exceed expectations starting from the second half of 2025, while power battery demand is anticipated to recover quickly from March 2026 [5][6]. Balance Sheet Summary - The lithium market is expected to experience a tightening supply-demand balance, with inventory cycles decreasing. The current inventory cycle for lithium salts in China is less than one month, indicating a potential for price increases in the near term [6][31].