碳中和深度报告（十四）：碳排放双控转型推动碳成本重估，看好绿电的非电应用

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the electric power equipment and environmental sectors [4]. Core Insights - The transition towards carbon emission dual control is driving a re-evaluation of carbon costs, with a focus on the non-electric applications of green electricity, such as green hydrogen, green ammonia, and green methanol, which are essential for decarbonizing industries like steel, chemicals, and shipping [1][6]. - The shift from "energy consumption dual control" to "carbon emission dual control" in China emphasizes high carbon emissions as the primary concern, leading to significant market opportunities in the "green electricity conversion" sector [1][20]. - The period from 2026 to 2030 is identified as a critical window for the commercialization of green hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol [1]. Summary by Sections 1. Carbon Emission Dual Control - The report discusses the transition from "energy consumption dual control" to "carbon emission dual control," highlighting the need for precise management to support renewable energy development [16][20]. - The implementation of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is expected to significantly impact Chinese export-oriented manufacturing, necessitating alternative decarbonization pathways [25][32]. 2. Green Electricity and High Carbon Industries - The report emphasizes that the energy supply side will be dominated by renewable energy, with a focus on the carbon cost embedded in industrial pricing [33][42]. - Industries with "negative carbon" or "low carbon" attributes will benefit from green premiums, while high carbon assets will face profit erosion [42]. 3. Non-Electric Applications - Green hydrogen is identified as a key non-electric application benefiting from carbon dual control policies, with potential to replace coal or natural gas in steel and chemical industries [53]. - The report forecasts significant demand for green hydrogen in various sectors by 2050, with the steel industry and ammonia production being major contributors [57][61]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with energy pricing power, leading decarbonization technologies, and those capable of cost transfer in upstream resources [3][8]. - Specific sectors to watch include upstream hydrogen production, chemical transformation companies, and midstream equipment manufacturers with technological advantages [3][8].