中国城市运行周期跟踪（2025.Q4）：期待更强政策干预，推动供需再平衡

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the real estate sector, indicating a positive outlook relative to the market index [5]. Core Insights - The overall performance of the real estate market in Q4 2025 shows weak transaction volumes, continued price declines, and rising inventory levels, indicating a need for stronger policy interventions to achieve market rebalancing [3][12]. - Only 19% of the 27 cities analyzed show signs of market stabilization, with the real estate sector still in a deep adjustment phase [12]. - The new housing market experienced a temporary recovery at the beginning of the year, but momentum weakened significantly in the second quarter, leading to increased downward pressure in Q4 [12][22]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The real estate market in Q4 2025 is still in a bottoming phase, with significant regional differences due to localized policies and varying reliance on land finance [8]. - A comprehensive scoring model was developed to assess the real estate cycle across cities, categorizing them into four stages: bottoming, rising, topping, and declining [8][9]. Price Trends - In Q4 2025, the year-on-year decline in new home prices expanded, with significant fluctuations observed, particularly in first-tier cities [14][16]. - The second-hand housing market mirrored the new housing trends, with prices also experiencing a year-on-year decline in Q4 [16][19]. Transaction Volumes - First-tier cities saw a dramatic year-on-year decline of 47% in new home transactions in Q4 2025, reflecting a significant drop in market activity [21][23]. - Second-tier cities faced even more pronounced declines, with new home transactions down by 43% year-on-year in Q4 [22][23]. Inventory and Clearance Cycles - The clearance cycle for new homes in first-tier cities exceeded 23 months, while second-tier cities reached a historical high of 26 months, indicating increasing inventory pressures [31][32]. - The prolonged clearance cycles and low transaction volumes highlight the lack of sales momentum and inventory accumulation in the new housing market [32].