HUAXI Securities·2026-02-26 07:25Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [5] Core Insights - The Spring Festival has shown a clear recovery in restaurant consumption, establishing a solid foundation for the upstream supply chain's revival [1] - The high demand during the Spring Festival has led to a significant increase in sales and customer traffic in key retail and dining sectors, indicating strong resilience in terminal demand [2] - The recovery logic is reinforced, with expectations for performance and valuation to resonate positively [4] Summary by Sections Event Overview - The Spring Festival is a peak season for dining consumption, with a notable recovery trend observed in 2026, supported by festive effects [1] Analysis and Judgment - National average daily sales for key retail and dining enterprises increased by 5.7% year-on-year during the Spring Festival, with customer traffic in 78 key pedestrian streets rising by 6.7% and revenue increasing by 7.5% [2] - The demand for festive gatherings surged, with Meituan's New Year's Eve dinner reservations up by 105% and Douyin's group purchases increasing by 185%, showcasing strong consumer vitality [2] - Jiangsu Province's dining revenue reached 18.3 billion yuan during the nine-day holiday, marking an 11.9% year-on-year growth, reflecting a nationwide recovery in dining consumption [2] Upstream Supply Chain Impact - The unexpected performance in downstream dining consumption is expected to positively impact the upstream supply chain, leading to improved inventory and sales [3] - Key categories such as frozen foods and condiments are set to benefit from the seasonal demand, with frozen food sales expected to rise due to the recovery in dining scenarios [3] - Leading companies in the industry are likely to strengthen their competitive barriers and improve profitability during the peak season [3] Recovery Logic and Valuation - The report maintains the core judgment that service consumption, particularly in dining and travel, will recover first, boosting consumer confidence and willingness to spend [4] - The ongoing recovery in dining sales, coupled with an increase in store numbers and a shift in pricing to cater to mass consumption, is expected to drive sustained demand growth [4][7] Investment Recommendations - Focus on core targets that exhibit both alpha and beta resonance: recommended companies include Anjijia Food, Yihai International, Guoquan, Qianwei Yangchu, Tianwei Food, and Haitian Flavoring [8] - Companies with high B-end business ratios are expected to benefit significantly from the dining recovery [8]