原油、燃料油日报：美国EIA商业原油超大幅累库，油价承压下行-20260226

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The short - term crude oil price may be under pressure at a high level. The supply increase in the Middle East countries and the obvious signal of inventory accumulation in the United States are the main factors. If the geopolitical conflict escalates, the price has an upward risk; otherwise, the supply increase may lead to a moderate correction [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary a. Crude Oil Futures Market Data Change Analysis - 主力合约与基差: On February 25, 2026, the SC main futures price (488.3 yuan/barrel) dropped slightly by 5.0 yuan from the previous day (493.3 yuan/barrel), a decline of 1.01%. The WTI main contract (66.08 US dollars/barrel) and Brent main contract (71.01 US dollars/barrel) remained stable. The SC - Brent spread (0.1 US dollars/barrel) weakened significantly by 0.54 US dollars from the previous day (0.64 US dollars/barrel), a decline of 84.38%. The SC - WTI spread (5.03 US dollars/barrel) weakened by 0.54 US dollars from the previous day (5.57 US dollars/barrel), a decline of 9.69%. The Brent - WTI spread (4.93 US dollars/barrel) remained stable. The SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread (-1.3 yuan/barrel) weakened significantly by 2.5 yuan from the previous day (1.2 yuan/barrel), a decline of 208.33% [2]. b. Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - Supply Side: Saudi Arabia's oil export volume is expected to reach the highest level in nearly three years, indicating an increase in production by OPEC+ core members. Iran is accelerating the loading of oil tankers, which may push up short - term exports. Iraq's oil production is also steadily increasing. Overall, the supply side shows an increasing trend driven by OPEC+ production increase and geopolitical factors [3]. - Demand Side: Tensions between the US and Iran may indirectly affect refinery equipment and refined oil demand. The demand for refined oil products such as gasoline and diesel remains stable [3]. - Inventory Side: From February 14 - 20, 2026, the US commercial crude oil inventory excluding strategic reserves increased by 15.989 million barrels to 436 million barrels, an increase of 3.81%. The EIA Cushing crude oil inventory in Oklahoma was 881,000 barrels. The EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory was 0 barrels. The EIA refined oil inventory was 252,000 barrels. The gasoline inventory decreased by 1.011 million barrels, and the heating oil inventory decreased by 119,000 barrels [4]. c. Price Trend Judgment The short - term crude oil price may be under pressure at a high level. The increase in production and export expansion in Middle Eastern countries put downward pressure on prices. The demand side is relatively stable, lacking strong driving forces. The overall increase in supply in the industry chain is dominant, and the US inventory accumulation signal is obvious. If the geopolitical conflict escalates, the price has an upward risk; otherwise, the supply increase may lead to a moderate correction [5]. 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring a. Crude Oil - Futures Prices: On February 25, 2026, the SC futures price was 488.30 yuan/barrel, down 5.00 yuan from the previous day, a decline of 1.01%. The WTI and Brent futures prices remained unchanged at 66.08 US dollars/barrel and 71.01 US dollars/barrel respectively. - Spot Prices: Most spot prices remained unchanged, such as the OPEC basket price at 69.69 US dollars/barrel, Brent at 71.40 US dollars/barrel, etc. - Spreads: The SC - Brent spread weakened significantly, the SC - WTI spread also weakened, while the Brent - WTI spread remained stable. The SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread weakened significantly [7]. b. Fuel Oil - Futures Prices: The FU futures price increased slightly by 0.03%, while the LU futures price decreased by 1.21%. The NYMEX fuel oil price remained unchanged. - Spot Prices: Most spot prices remained unchanged. - Spreads: The China high - low sulfur spread decreased by 8.02%. Some spreads and inventory data also showed certain changes [8]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation a. Supply - On February 25, 2026, Saudi Arabia's oil export volume from its ports is expected to reach the highest level in nearly three years. Iran has been accelerating the loading of oil tankers in recent days, possibly in preparation for a potential US attack. Iraq's Kurdistan region's oil export volume is 20 - 210,000 barrels per day, and the total export volume exceeds 3.4 million barrels per day, with a target to increase to over 3.45 million barrels per day. The output of Iraq's West Qurna 2 oil field is expected to increase from 450,000 barrels per day to 750,000 - 800,000 barrels per day [9][10]. b. Market Information - Iraq's total oil revenue in January was 648.5 million US dollars. Due to the tense situation in the Middle East during the Spring Festival, the oil price fluctuated strongly. The market is concerned about the latest US - Iran peace talks. If the talks do not progress, the US may launch an attack, and the oil price has an upward risk; otherwise, the oil price will decline moderately [11]. 4. Industry Chain Data Charts The report includes multiple data charts such as WTI, Brent first - line contract prices and spreads, SC and WTI spread statistics, US crude oil weekly production, OPEC crude oil production, etc., with data sources from WIND, EIA, etc. [12][14][16]