弘业期货锌月报：短期沪锌上方承压-20260226

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View In the short term, Shanghai zinc faces upward pressure. The domestic zinc market is in a state of weak supply and demand, but the significant decline in downstream demand has led to a substantial accumulation of zinc inventories. Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate. The future trend depends on the resumption of work in downstream terminals. If downstream demand recovers rapidly in March, it may drive inventory reduction and provide upward momentum for zinc prices; otherwise, high inventories will suppress the upward space of prices [1][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Changes - Processing Fees: In December 2025, China's zinc concentrate imports were 462,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.87%. From January to December 2025, cumulative imports reached 5.324 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.59%. In March 2026, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was 1,300 - 1,700 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 100 yuan. The imported zinc concentrate processing fee was $31.5 per dry ton, a month - on - month decrease of $18.42. Last week, the domestic zinc concentrate spot processing fee remained at 1,500 - 1,700 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous week, while the imported zinc concentrate spot processing fee was $24.35 per dry ton, a weekly decrease of $0.53 [2]. - Supply: In January 2026, the monthly output of refined zinc was 560,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.54% and a year - on - year increase of 7.35%, slightly lower than expected. In February, due to the reduction in the number of days and some smelters' Spring Festival shutdowns for maintenance, the output is expected to fall by 8.78% or 49,200 tons to 511,400 tons. Before the Spring Festival, winter stockpiling was basically completed, but the overall inventory can only meet about 22 - 23 days of production needs, far lower than the same period in previous years. The import of ore is limited due to deepening losses, and enterprises mainly rely on domestic ore for production. Currently, the smelting profit remains in a loss state, but with the support of high sulfuric acid prices, there is no significant pressure on the supply side to cut production substantially. In December 2025, the import volume of refined zinc was 8,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 73.4%. In December, the export of refined zinc was 27,200 tons, resulting in a net export of 18,500 tons. The domestic Shanghai - London price ratio has weakened significantly, the export profit window for refined zinc has closed, and the import loss has widened [3]. - Consumption: In the first week after the Spring Festival, due to the low start - up rate of terminal real estate and infrastructure projects, enterprises' finished product inventories have accumulated. The market mainly focuses on long - term order pick - up, and new order transactions are limited. The start - up rate of galvanizing enterprises remains at a low level. The spot market has abundant supplies, but downstream enterprises have not fully resumed work, and the purchasing sentiment is weak, resulting in poor spot transactions. In some areas, the discount has even widened. It is expected that the demand of zinc downstream enterprises will not recover intensively until after the Lantern Festival [3]. Spot and Inventory - Spot: As of February 25, the average price of 0 zinc ingots in the Yangtze River spot market was 24,550 yuan per ton. This week, the spot price opened high and then gradually declined. The basis discount of Yangtze River spot 0 zinc to the main contract widened to - 95 yuan. LME zinc spot remained at a discount of - $29.63 [5]. - Inventory: As of the week of February 20, the LME inventory was 101,500 tons, showing a slight decline and currently lower than the average level in recent years. In China, the decline in zinc inventory has stopped. As of February 24, the domestic social inventory was 174,300 tons. After the Spring Festival, the inventory increased significantly and is at the highest level in the past four years. As of February 13, the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 87,025 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,336 tons [5].