瑞达期货菜籽系产业日报-20260226

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the rapeseed industry is complex. For rapeseed meal, due to the unclear Sino - Canadian trade situation, the supply - side pressure is limited, but it is in the off - season of aquaculture demand, and the demand is mainly rigid. The overall rapeseed meal has maintained a volatile trend recently, and short - term trading is recommended. For rapeseed oil, the Sino - Canadian trade situation also restricts the commercial purchase of rapeseed, and the supply - side pressure is relatively limited. The rapeseed oil closed lower in shock today, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil futures closing price (active contract) is 9185 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan; rapeseed meal futures closing price (active contract) is 2296 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan. ICE rapeseed futures closing price (active) is 690.4 Canadian dollars/ton, down 1.3 Canadian dollars; rapeseed futures closing price (active contract) is 5795 yuan/ton, up 195 yuan [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil month - to - month spread (5 - 9) is 21 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; rapeseed meal month - to - month spread (5 - 9) is - 65 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan [2]. - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil main contract position is 251806 hands, down 6923 hands; rapeseed meal main contract position is 904520 hands, up 36518 hands [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil net long position is - 20883 hands, down 8971 hands; rapeseed meal net long position is - 223328 hands, down 29725 hands [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: Rapeseed oil warehouse receipt quantity is 625 sheets, unchanged; rapeseed meal warehouse receipt quantity is 0 sheets, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil spot price in Jiangsu is 9980 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; rapeseed meal spot price in Nantong is 2510 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. Rapeseed spot price in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6300 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of rapeseed oil is 10086.25 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. The import cost price of imported rapeseed is 8065.45 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan [2]. - Basis: Rapeseed oil main contract basis is 795 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; rapeseed meal main contract basis is 214 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan [2]. - Price spreads: Rapeseed - soybean oil spot price spread is 1330 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; rapeseed - palm oil spot price spread is 1200 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; soybean - rapeseed meal spot price spread is 590 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production: Global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 95.17 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; rapeseed annual forecast production is 13446 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Import quantities: Rapeseed import quantity (total) for the current month is 5.56 million tons, up 5.36 million tons; rapeseed oil and mustard oil import quantity for the current month is 22 million tons, up 5 million tons; rapeseed meal import quantity for the current month is 23.82 million tons, up 2.35 million tons [2]. - Pressing profit and开机率: Imported rapeseed crushing profit per ton is 172 yuan, down 6 yuan; imported rapeseed weekly开机率 is 0%, down 2.67% [2]. - Inventory: Rapeseed inventory in oil mills (total) is 7.5 million tons, up 2.5 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: Coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 0.5 million tons, unchanged; coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0.6 million tons, unchanged. East China rapeseed oil inventory is 24.2 million tons, up 0.2 million tons; East China rapeseed meal inventory is 9.35 million tons, unchanged. Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory is 0.5 million tons, unchanged; South China rapeseed meal inventory is 27.5 million tons, unchanged [2]. -提货量: Rapeseed oil weekly提货量 is 1.17 million tons, down 1.2 million tons; rapeseed meal weekly提货量 is 1.48 million tons, down 1.38 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: Feed production for the current month is 3008.6 million tons, up 30.7 million tons; edible vegetable oil production for the current month is 525.4 million tons, up 60.6 million tons [2]. - Consumption: Social consumer goods retail sales of catering revenue for the current month is 5738 billion yuan, down 319 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: Rapeseed meal at - the - money call option implied volatility is 18.37%, down 1.34%; at - the - money put option implied volatility is 18.37%, down 1.34%. Rapeseed oil at - the - money call option implied volatility is 15.8%, up 0.34%; at - the - money put option implied volatility is 15.8%, up 0.34% [2]. - Historical volatility: 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 14.69%, up 0.27%; 60 - day historical volatility is 14.63%, up 0.13%. 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 20.07%, down 0.01%; 60 - day historical volatility is 17.65%, up 0.02% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On February 25 (Wednesday), ICE rapeseed futures showed a divergent trend. US President Trump's speech in the State of the Union did not give clear guidance to the Canadian rapeseed market. The most active May rapeseed contract fell 0.20 Canadian dollars to 691.40 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - The US Department of Agriculture said at the annual outlook forum that the US soybean planting area in 2026 is expected to increase by 3.8 million acres to 85 million acres. Based on a trend yield of 53 bushels per acre, the US soybean production in the next year will reach 4.45 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. South American soybean harvest is expected to be good, and the supply - side pressure will gradually increase [2]. - The Canadian Department of Agriculture predicts that the rapeseed production in 2026/27 will be 19.2 million tons, lower than 21.8 million tons in the previous year. The ending inventory is 1.65 million tons, lower than 2.75 million tons in the previous year [2]. - From February 1 - 20, 2026, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 8.9% - 12.6% month - on - month. The US Department of Agriculture's outlook forum predicts that the demand for soybean oil for biofuel production in 2025/26 will reach 14.8 billion pounds, a year - on - year increase of 26%, and will further increase by 17% to 17.3 billion pounds in 2026/27 [2]. - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce said that the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed has been extended to March 9 due to the complexity of the case [2].