瑞达期货铝类产业日报-20260226

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For alumina, the fundamentals may be in a stage of sufficient supply and stable demand. It's recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - For electrolytic aluminum, after the holiday, demand may gradually pick up. It's also recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices, paying attention to rhythm and trading risks [2]. - For cast aluminum alloy, it's expected that consumption may recover after the holiday. It's recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trades and control trading risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Aluminum Futures: The closing price of the main SHFE aluminum contract is 23,845 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the main - to - second - consecutive contract spread is - 220 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the main contract position is 252,168 hands, up 4,008 hands; the net position of the top 20 in SHFE aluminum is - 62,653 hands, down 8,177 hands; the SHFE - LME ratio is 7.51, down 0.15; the SHFE aluminum inventory is 297,340 tons, up 52,200 tons; the SHFE aluminum warrant is 288,287 tons, up 3,112 tons [2]. - Alumina Futures: The closing price of the main alumina futures contract is 2,820 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the main - to - second - consecutive contract spread is - 65 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; the main contract position is 340,118 hands, up 35,111 hands [2]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy Futures: The closing price of the main cast aluminum alloy contract is 22,710 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the main - to - second - consecutive contract spread is - 220 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan; the main contract position is 9,330 hands, down 2,149 hands; the SHFE registered warrant is 66,174 tons, down 907 tons; the SHFE inventory is 72,735 tons, down 1,690 tons [2]. - LME Aluminum: The three - month LME electrolytic aluminum quotation is 3,174.5 dollars/ton, up 64 dollars; the LME aluminum inventory is 469,550 tons, down 2,000 tons; the LME aluminum cancelled warrant is 47,325 tons, unchanged; the LME aluminum premium/discount is - 20.4 dollars/ton, up 6.22 dollars [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of SMM A00 aluminum is 23,800 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan; the average price (tax - included) of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide is 23,520 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum price is 23,360 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan; the alumina spot price of SMM is 2,570 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - The basis of cast aluminum alloy is 1,090 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum is - 325 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan; the Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium/discount is - 170 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the basis of alumina is - 250 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The alumina production is 801.08 million tons, down 12.72 million tons; the alumina capacity utilization rate is 84.00%, down 1.00 percentage point; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) is 731.29 million tons, up 25.33 million tons; the alumina supply - demand balance is 28.90 million tons, up 2.32 million tons [2]. - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal waste is 18,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price in Shandong metal waste is 17,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; China's import of aluminum waste and scrap is 194,102.07 tons, up 31,482.14 tons; China's export is 70.80 tons, down 0.73 tons [2]. - China's alumina export is 21.00 million tons, up 4.00 million tons; the alumina import is 22.78 million tons, down 0.46 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance is 20.49 million tons, up 31.36 million tons; the primary aluminum import is 189,196.58 tons, up 43,086.86 tons; the primary aluminum export is 37,575.30 tons, down 15,472.39 tons [2]. - The electrolytic aluminum social inventory is 107.12 million tons, up 21.01 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum total capacity is 4,540.20 million tons, up 4.00 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum operating rate is 98.79%, up 0.48 percentage point [2]. - The aluminum product production is 613.56 million tons, up 20.46 million tons; the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products is 54.00 million tons, down 3.00 million tons [2]. - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 66.49 million tons, down 1.91 million tons; the export of aluminum alloy is 2.55 million tons, down 0.51 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The built - in capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 126.00 million tons, unchanged; the national real estate climate index is 91.45, down 0.44; the aluminum alloy production is 182.50 million tons, unchanged; the automobile production is 341.15 million vehicles, down 10.75 million vehicles [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of SHFE aluminum is 38.77%, down 0.14 percentage point; the 40 - day historical volatility is 31.83%, unchanged; the implied volatility of the at - the - money option of the main SHFE aluminum contract is 16.85%, down 0.0032; the call - put ratio of SHFE aluminum options is 1.82, up 0.0671 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The US Trade Representative may take tariff measures after the 301 investigation on China's implementation of the first - phase economic and trade agreement [2]. - Chinese and German leaders held talks, emphasizing deepening economic and trade cooperation and resolving concerns through dialogue [2]. - The inventory of the national passenger vehicle industry at the end of January is at a high level, with relatively large inventory pressure [2]. - Fujian Province issued an implementation plan for trading in old cars for new ones in 2026, providing subsidies for eligible new car purchases [2].