银河期货鸡蛋日报-20260226

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the relatively good profit situation in the early stage, the market's enthusiasm for culling has declined, slowing down the overall capacity reduction. Considering that the egg consumption season will enter the off - season after the Spring Festival, although the inventory situation has improved, the recent good egg price performance has weakened the overall capacity reduction. Therefore, it is advisable to consider shorting the June contract on rallies. [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures Prices: The closing prices of JD01, JD05, and JD09 are 3615, 3413, and 3800 respectively, down 87, 30, and 21 from the previous trading day. [2] - Cross - Month Spreads: The spreads of 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01 are 202, - 387, and 185 respectively, with changes of - 57, - 9, and 66 compared to the previous trading day. [2] - Price Ratios: The ratios of 01 egg/maize, 05 egg/maize, and 09 egg/maize are 1.56, 1.46, and 1.61 respectively, down 0.04, 0.01, and 0.01 from the previous trading day; the ratios of 01 egg/soybean meal, 05 egg/soybean meal, and 09 egg/soybean meal are 1.20, 1.20, and 1.29 respectively, down 0.04, 0.01, and 0.01 from the previous trading day. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Egg Prices: The average price in the main producing areas is 2.91 yuan/jin, and the average price in the main selling areas is 3.02 yuan/jin, both remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The prices in various regions such as Beijing, Northeast China, Shandong, and Henan are generally stable, with the egg price continuing to fluctuate and consolidate, and the sales volume being average. [2][4] - Culled Chicken Prices: The average price of culled chickens in the main producing areas is 4.43 yuan/jin, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The prices in various regions such as Handan, Shijiazhuang, and Jiaozuo are also stable. [2] 3.3 Profit Calculation - Cost and Price Changes: The average price of culled chickens is 4.43 yuan/jin, remaining unchanged; the average price of chicken seedlings is 3.21 yuan, up 0.04 from the previous day; the price of egg - laying hen vaccines is 3 yuan, remaining stable; the average price of maize is 2381 yuan, up 1 from the previous day; the average price of soybean meal is 3188 yuan, remaining unchanged; the price of egg - laying hen compound feed is 2.62 yuan, remaining unchanged. [2] - Profit Changes: The profit per chicken is - 3.18 yuan, down 0.08 from the previous day. [2] 3.4 Fundamental Information - Egg Production and Sales: In January, the national inventory of laying hens in production was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, a year - on - year increase of 5%, and lower than expected. The monthly output of chicken seedlings in the sampled enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information in January was about 43.22 million, a month - on - month increase of 9%, with little year - on - year change. As of the week of February 12, the egg sales volume in the representative selling areas was 6390 tons, a decrease of 12% from the previous week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. [4][5] - Culling Situation: As of the week of February 12, the number of culled laying hens in the main producing areas was 13.17 million, a decrease of 20% from the previous week. The average culling age of culled chickens in the week of February 6 was 497 days, an increase of 2 days from the previous week. [5] - Profit and Inventory: As of February 12, the average weekly profit per jin of eggs was 0.12 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.4 yuan/jin from the previous week; on February 12, the expected profit of egg - laying hen farming was - 13.12 yuan/chicken, remaining unchanged from the previous week. The average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.24 days, a decrease of 0.02 days from the previous week; the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.26 days, remaining unchanged from the previous week. [5] 3.5 Trading Logic - The relatively good profit situation in the early stage has led to a decline in the market's enthusiasm for culling, slowing down the overall capacity reduction. After the Spring Festival, the egg consumption enters the off - season. Although the inventory has improved, the recent good egg price performance has weakened the overall capacity reduction. Therefore, it is advisable to consider shorting the June contract on rallies. [6] 3.6 Trading Strategy - Single - Side Trading: Consider shorting the June contract on rallies. [7] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see. [7] - Options Trading: It is recommended to wait and see. [7]