山金期货贵金属策略报告-20260226

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals market showed a slightly stronger trend with fluctuations on the day. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed flat, Shanghai Silver rose 0.47%, Platinum rose 2%, and Palladium fell 2.27%. The short - term core logic is that while the trade - war risk has eased, geopolitical risks still exist. The US employment is strong and inflation pressure remains, with low expectations of interest - rate cuts. [1] - Trump's 10% global tariff has come into effect, and the White House plans to raise it to 15%. China will adjust counter - measures as appropriate. The US - Iran conflict risk still exists. [1] - The Fed's January meeting minutes showed great differences among policymakers on the future direction of interest rates, with discussions on the possibility of interest - rate hikes mentioned for the first time. The market expects the Fed to complete interest - rate cuts this year, with the next cut possibly in July. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields fluctuated weakly. [1] - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for 15 consecutive months. Silver is supported by tight supply, platinum has strong demand expectations for platinum - based catalysts in the hydrogen energy industry, and palladium has short - term demand resilience but faces long - term structural pressure in the fuel - vehicle market. The CRB commodity index fluctuated weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB was negative for domestic prices. [1] - It is expected that precious metals will show a slightly stronger trend with fluctuations in the short term, high - level fluctuations in the medium term, and a long - term bullish trend. [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. [2] - Price Data: International prices (Comex Gold and London Gold) increased, while domestic prices (Shanghai Gold main contract and Gold T + D) showed mixed trends. The basis and spreads also had different changes. [2] - Position and Inventory: Comex Gold and Shanghai Gold main contract positions decreased, while Gold T + D positions increased slightly. Inventory changes were relatively small. [2] - Net Position Ranking: The top 10 futures companies' net long and net short positions in Shanghai Gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange had different changes. [3] Silver - Strategy: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high with proper position management. [5] - Price Data: International prices (Comex Silver and London Silver) increased significantly, while domestic prices (Shanghai Silver main contract and Silver T + D) decreased. The basis and spreads changed greatly. [5] - Position and Inventory: Positions in Comex Silver, Shanghai Silver main contract, and Silver T + D all decreased. Inventory also decreased. [5] - Net Position Ranking: The top 10 futures companies' net long and net short positions in Shanghai Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange had different changes. [6] Platinum - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high with good position management. [7] - Price Data: International prices (NYMEX Platinum and London Platinum) had different trends, and domestic prices (Platinum main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange and Platinum on the Shanghai Gold Exchange) increased. The basis and spreads changed. [8] - Position and Inventory: The position of NYMEX Platinum active contract decreased, and the inventory decreased slightly. [8] - Net Position Ranking: The top 10 futures companies' net long and net short positions in Platinum on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange had different changes. [9] Palladium - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high with proper position management. [10] - Price Data: International prices (NYMEX Palladium and London Palladium) increased, and the domestic price (Palladium main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange) also increased. The basis and spreads changed. [10] - Position and Inventory: The position of NYMEX Palladium active contract decreased significantly, and the inventory decreased slightly. [10] Precious Metals Fundamental Key Data - Monetary Attributes: The Federal Reserve's relevant interest rates decreased, and the total assets decreased slightly. Key economic indicators such as M2, ten - year US Treasury real yield, and US dollar index had different changes. [11][13] - US Economic Data: GDP, unemployment rate, employment data, real estate market data, consumption data, industrial data, trade data, and economic survey data all showed different trends. [13] - Central Bank Gold Reserves and IMF Foreign Exchange Reserves: China's central bank gold reserves increased slightly, and the proportion of different currencies in IMF foreign exchange reserves changed. [13] - Safe - Haven and Commodity Attributes: The geopolitical risk index and VIX index decreased, and the CRB commodity index increased slightly. The offshore RMB exchange rate decreased slightly. [13] Fed's Latest Interest - Rate Expectations - The probability distribution of the Fed's interest - rate levels at different meetings from 2026 to 2027 is provided, showing the market's expectations of the Fed's interest - rate decisions. [15]