南华宏观专题：美国关税新政的影响

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The recent drastic fluctuations in US tariff policies were triggered by the US Supreme Court's final judicial ruling on February 20, 2026. The Trump administration launched a legal alternative and completed tariff adjustments, implementation, and geopolitical exemptions within 72 hours, forming a complete policy chain. The ruling did not end Trump's trade protectionism but limited his most flexible unilateral tariff tool. The Trump administration is reconstructing the tariff framework through multiple legal paths, and the risks of re - inflation and policy uncertainty have significantly increased [3]. - The 122 - clause tariff can only provide short - term tariff support for 150 days. The Trump administration will use the 232 - clause industry tariff and 301 - clause country - specific tariff as the core means for the medium - and long - term reconstruction of the tariff system, while reserving more radical policy tools. Congressional bipartisan games will be the core variable determining the long - term policy direction [19]. - The Supreme Court's ruling has limited short - term impacts on the US terminal aggregate demand, fiscal revenue, trade pattern, and capital market. The market's expectation of "tariff reduction driving disinflation" has not been fulfilled, and the risk of re - inflation remains high [23]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. US Tariff New Policy Revived 1.1 Pre - trigger Event: Supreme Court Final Ruling, Core Tariff System Completely Invalidated - On February 20, 2026, the US Supreme Court ruled that all general tariff measures implemented by the Trump administration under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) without specific congressional authorization were an over - reach of presidential power, violating the US Constitution and trade laws. These invalidated tariffs included the 10% global benchmark tariff, global retaliatory "equivalent tariffs", fentanyl - related special tariffs, and additional country - specific tariffs on countries such as China, Mexico, and Canada, covering over 120 countries and regions [3]. - The 10% global benchmark tariff on almost all imported goods from 127 countries and regions was the core invalid item. The "equivalent tariffs" with rates ranging from 10% to 50% covered almost all US trading partners. The fentanyl - related special tariffs targeted imports from China, Mexico, and Canada. There were also additional country - specific tariffs on China, Mexico, Canada, India, Brazil, etc. [3][4][8] - The ruling only negated the legality of tariffs imposed under IEEPA, not the tariffs imposed under other congressional - authorized laws such as the 232 - clause and 301 - clause. The estimated cumulative scale of the invalidated tariffs exceeded $175 billion, and the refund process will enter a long - term legal litigation procedure [8]. 1.2 Core Policy Change Process: Emergency Replacement, Tariff Rate Increase, and Geopolitical Exemption - First Stage: February 20, Emergency Replacement, Invoking Clause 122 to Sign a 10% Comprehensive Tariff - Immediately after the Supreme Court's ruling, Trump signed a presidential executive order, invoking Clause 122 of the 1974 Trade Act to introduce a new 10% comprehensive import tariff, replacing the invalidated tariffs. This is the first time in over 50 years since the legislation of this clause that it has been used for a general tariff measure targeting most of the US trading partners [10]. - The new tariff covers almost all imported goods from most countries and regions except US free - trade agreement partners and least - developed countries. It aims to restore the average US import tariff to the pre - ruling level within 150 days. The 122 - clause tariff has clear differences from the IEEPA tariff in terms of tax rate limits, validity periods, extension rules, and application boundaries [11]. - The 122 - clause tariff has detailed exemption ranges for various categories of goods, including resources and livelihood items, high - end manufacturing products, free - trade agreement - related goods, special categories, and exceptions. It took effect on February 24, 2026, with a 150 - day validity period. The model predicts that the weighted average US tariff level will rise to around 11% [11]. - Second Stage: February 21, Verbally Announcing a Top - up to the 15% Legal Upper Limit - Trump announced on social media that the 10% comprehensive tariff would be raised to 15%, reaching the maximum tax rate allowed by Clause 122. After the replacement of the IEEPA tariff with the 122 - clause tariff, the tariffs on exports to the US from different countries and product categories have changed significantly. If Trump imposes a 15% tariff on the top 10 US trade deficit source countries, the weighted average US tariff level will rise to around 15%. As of February 26, the actual implementation rate by the US Customs and Border Protection is still 10%, and Trump's statement about the 15% tariff remains at the social media level [12]. - Third Stage: February 23, Targeted Exemption, Exchanging Tariff Concessions for a Geopolitical Agreement on Greenland - On February 23, the US, NATO, and Denmark reached a framework agreement on Greenland's security and cooperation. In exchange, the Trump administration excluded 8 European NATO countries from the 122 - clause comprehensive tariff. This is related to the US's competition for Arctic strategic resources and military layout. The exemption only applies to the 122 - clause tariff, and the 232 - clause and 301 - clause tariffs on these countries still apply. This move also aims to relieve domestic inflation pressure and focus on core trading opponents. As of February 26, the specific implementation details of the exemption are still being formulated [13][14][15]. 2. 150 - day Window Period: Medium - and Long - term Reconstruction Path and Core Boundaries of US Tariff Policy 2.1 Core Boundaries of This Round of Tariff Policy Adjustment - Legal Boundary: The 10% tariff based on Clause 122 has clear congressional authorization and is not within the scope of the Supreme Court's previous ruling, so it will not be overturned by the judicial process in the short term [19]. - Validity Period: The tariff takes effect on February 24, 2026, and will expire automatically after 150 days. To extend it, the Trump administration needs the majority votes of both houses of Congress. Given the current bipartisan differences, the probability of extension is low [20]. - Existing Tariffs: The existing tariffs under the 232 - clause and 301 - clause are not affected by this policy adjustment and will continue to be implemented. The Trump administration has quickly switched to legal tariff paths to offset the policy gap, resulting in little change in the overall US tariff level [20]. - Policy Execution and Tax Refund: The Supreme Court did not specify the details and time limits for tax refunds. The refund process requires importers to initiate lawsuits, and the short - term effects of policy changes are difficult to be transmitted to the terminal market and the macro - economy [21]. 2.2 Medium - and Long - term Tariff System Reconstruction Path within the 150 - day Window Period - Core Long - term Policy Tools: The 232 - clause and 301 - clause are the core means for the Trump administration to build a medium - and long - term tariff system. These two clauses have clear congressional authorization, no tax rate limits, and no time constraints. Since 2025, the US has imposed tariffs of 10% - 50% on various product categories under the 232 - clause, covering an import scale of over $1.3 trillion [21]. - Incremental Tariff Reserves: The ongoing 232 investigations in the US cover products such as pharmaceuticals, medical devices, large aircraft, and key minerals, accounting for about 20% of the total US imports. Most of these investigations can produce final results in the first half of 2026, with the conditions for quickly imposing tariffs [21]. - Accelerated Policy Implementation: The US Trade Representative's Office is accelerating multiple trade investigations. The 232 national security investigations on 9 product categories such as semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and industrial robots are in the final stage, and new industry - specific tariffs may be implemented within 1 - 3 months. The US also plans to launch a new round of 301 investigations targeting major global trading partners to complete the long - term tariff system before the expiration of the 122 - clause tariff [22]. - Reserved Radical Policy Options: The Trump administration has reserved the 338 - clause of the 1930 Tariff Act, which allows the president to impose retaliatory tariffs on countries with unreasonable or discriminatory trade restrictions after the USTR's investigation, serving as a bargaining chip in trade negotiations [22]. 2.3 Core Constraints on Medium - and Long - term Tariff Policies: Congressional Legislative Games - Congressional legislative games are the most critical variable determining the long - term direction of US tariff policies. The Supreme Court's ruling has returned the tariff - making power to Congress. In 2026, a general trade law is difficult to be introduced, but a special trade law targeting China may be possible. The Trump administration is promoting Congress to introduce more sustainable tariff - authorization legislation. However, due to the differences within the Republican Party and the lack of clear support from both parties for the extension of the 122 - clause tariff, the probability of relevant legislation and extension is very low [22]. 2.4 Macro - effects of Policy Adjustment - Terminal Commodity Prices: Terminal commodity prices are sticky, and the prices will not decrease rapidly due to the invalidation of the IEEPA tariff. The price transmission has a strong lag, and the incentive for enterprises to apply for tax refunds is low, so the terminal demand will not be significantly stimulated [23]. - Export Price Adjustment: After the cancellation of the IEEPA tariff, exporters have room to raise prices, offsetting the price - reduction effect of tariff cuts [23]. - Tax Refund: The tax - refund process is long, and the funds only flow to importers, having little impact on the total demand [24]. - Alternative Tariff Policies: The alternative tariff policies will maintain the original tax rate and revenue scale, and the overall fiscal impact is minimal. The inflation stickiness remains strong [24]. - Tariff Exemption and Existing High - Tariff Policies: The exemption of EU imports and the continuation of high 232 - clause tariffs on core product categories weaken the disinflation effect [25]. - Market Narrative and Asset Prices: The tariff ruling has little impact on the global industrial production, trade volume, and asset prices, and does not change the overall market macro - narrative [25]. 3. Core Boundaries and Subsequent Key Nodes of This Round of Tariff Policy Changes - The Supreme Court's ruling has limited short - term impacts on the US terminal aggregate demand, fiscal revenue, trade pattern, and capital market. The 122 - clause tariff has clear congressional authorization, is valid for 150 days, and is difficult to be extended. The existing 232 - clause and 301 - clause tariffs are not affected. - Key subsequent time windows include: before March 17, 2026, the Trump administration can apply for a ruling review; from March to June 2026, it is the key period for the implementation of new 232 and 301 investigations; from March 31 to April 2, 2026, is the time window for Trump's planned visit to China; and on July 24, 2026, the 122 - clause temporary tariff will expire, which is also a key node for congressional legislative games on tariff extension [27].