焦炭日报：短期偏震荡-20260226

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term investment rating of "sideways" for the coke industry [1][2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand pattern of coke is directly affected by upstream coking coal costs, downstream steel demand, and macro - policy guidance [2] - Coke is still in the seasonal inventory accumulation stage, and attention should be paid to the intensity of production resumption [2] - Post - holiday restocking of downstream steel mills is delayed, and there is no obvious increase in coke demand [1][2] - Trump's tariff policy has reignited market concerns, but there are still policy expectations due to the upcoming Two Sessions [2] - In general, coke is expected to be sideways in the short term, and attention should be paid to the support near the previous low and the resistance near the previous high [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Inventory - During the Spring Festival, most coking enterprises maintained normal production, leading to inventory accumulation. The inventory of 18 ports decreased by 61,300 tons to 2.6386 million tons, and the inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 93,000 tons to 6.8861 million tons. The comprehensive coke inventory increased to 10.5275 million tons, reaching a 9.5 - month high [1] - After the Spring Festival holiday, due to coal mine shutdowns, coking coal supply decreased. The comprehensive coking coal inventory decreased by 2.784 million tons to 26.4731 million tons, 3.94% lower year - on - year [1] Profit - During the Spring Festival, the coke price remained stable. The profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants in the country remained at - 8 yuan/ton, and the profit per ton of coke in each region basically remained unchanged [1] Downstream Demand - Downstream steel mills mostly resume production after the Lantern Festival. There is no concentrated procurement in the short term, and restocking may be postponed to the second week after the festival. Currently, there is no obvious increase in coke demand [1] Upstream Coking Coal - During the Spring Festival holiday, coal mines were on holiday and shut down, resulting in a decline in coking coal supply. After the holiday consumption, the inventories of coking enterprises and steel mills both decreased [1] News - Some steel enterprises in North China have received a notice of temporary independent emission reduction during the 2026 National Important Conference, requiring enterprises to implement phased emission reduction control from March 4th to March 11th, with the blast furnace load reduced by at least 30% [1]