软商品日报：震荡延续-20260226

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Report's Core View - Cotton's rebound was interrupted by potential trade conflicts, and whether the tariff conflict will actually form is an important factor affecting near - term supply and demand. The supply - demand structure of US cotton is gradually tightening, but the impact of US tariff policy adjustments on demand expectations needs attention. The outcome of the Sino - US sixth round of economic and trade consultations will also affect the sentiment [1]. - The supply of white sugar is loose and demand is insufficient. The Brazilian sugar production is less than expected, but the sugar production in the Northern Hemisphere, especially in India, pressures the price. The inner - market Zheng sugar is eager to move, but the weakness of raw sugar leads to an expansion of import profits, and it is estimated that white sugar will continue to fluctuate at the bottom [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Cotton - After the US Supreme Court rejected Trump's global reciprocal tariff, Trump announced a general tariff of 10% which would rise to 15%. China is closely monitoring and will evaluate US measures and may adjust counter - measures. The supply - demand structure of US cotton is tightening, with reduced planting area expectations in Brazil and China. The US tariff policy and Sino - US trade negotiations are key factors to watch [1]. White Sugar - As of February 25, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports decreased from 43 to 41, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped decreased from 157.7 million tons to 146.17 million tons. The estimated cost of processing and paying taxes for Brazilian sugar within the quota is 3847 yuan/ton, and outside the quota is 4881 yuan/ton. The estimated profit within the quota is 1603 yuan/ton, and outside the quota is 569 yuan/ton. Brazilian sugar production is less than expected, but Indian sugar production in the Northern Hemisphere pressures the price. The outer - market raw sugar 03 contract faces a huge delivery of 1.7 million tons, indicating loose supply and insufficient demand. The inner - market Zheng sugar may continue to fluctuate at the bottom [2].