原油日报：原油高开后震荡下行-20260226

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The report expects crude oil prices to oscillate strongly. The outcome of the US-Iran negotiations is uncertain and has a significant impact on oil prices. Attention should be paid to risk control [1] Summary by Directory 行情分析 - OPEC+ eight member countries will maintain the original plan to suspend the increase in oil production in March. OPEC+ will consider increasing daily oil production by 137,000 barrels in April at the meeting on March 1st. If the US strikes Iran, Saudi Arabia plans to significantly increase oil production in the short term [1] - EIA data shows that US crude oil inventories have increased significantly beyond expectations, the de-stocking of refined oil is relatively small, and the overall oil product inventories have increased significantly. US crude oil inventories fluctuated greatly in February [1] - The second round of US-Iran negotiations last week was uncertain. Iran said it had made positive progress in the first half of the week, but the US military increased military threats in the Middle East in the second half of the week. The US and Iran will resume negotiations in Geneva on the 26th [1] - Due to pressure from US trade agreements, Indian refineries may increase crude oil purchases from the Middle East and the Americas. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has not made substantial progress on core issues such as territory and ceasefire [1] 期现行情 - Today, the main crude oil futures contract 2604 fell 1.23% to 488.3 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 482.4 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 491.4 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 860 to 40,604 lots [2] 基本面跟踪 - The EIA monthly report raised the 2026 WTI crude oil price by $0.79/barrel to $52.21/barrel, lowered the 2026 global oil demand from the previous forecast of 105.2 million barrels per day to 104.8 million barrels per day, and raised the 2026 global oil production from the previous forecast of 107.4 million barrels per day to 107.7 million barrels per day [3] - The IEA raised the 2026 global oil demand growth rate by 70,000 barrels per day to 930,000 barrels per day, but raised the 2026 global oil production growth rate by 100,000 barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day [3] - On the evening of February 25th, US EIA data showed that US crude oil inventories for the week ending February 20th increased by 15.989 million barrels, far exceeding the expected increase of 1.481 million barrels and 0.77% higher than the five-year average. Gasoline inventories decreased by 1.011 million barrels, and refined oil inventories increased by 252,000 barrels [3] 供给端 - OPEC's latest monthly report shows that the average total crude oil production of OPEC+ in January was 42.448 million barrels per day, a decrease of 439,000 barrels per day compared to December, mainly due to supply disruptions in Kazakhstan, Venezuela, and Iran [4] - US crude oil production decreased by 33,000 barrels per day to 13.702 million barrels per day in the week of February 20th, near the historical high [4] - The four-week average supply of US crude oil products increased to 21.391 million barrels per day, a year-on-year increase of 5.07%. The weekly production of gasoline and diesel decreased, driving the weekly supply of US crude oil products to decrease by 0.89% month-on-month [4]