油粕日报：延续震荡-20260226

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Views - The soybean meal market is expected to continue its strong and volatile trend this week, with the need to monitor the arrival of goods and the progress of state reserve sales [1] - The overall outlook for the oil and fat sector is cautiously optimistic, with limited downside and the upside rebound height depending on policy guidance. Attention should be paid to the US - Iran negotiations in the next two days, and spot prices should be actively fixed at low points in case of significant adjustments [2] Group 3: Summary by Content Soybean Meal - Crop experts have lowered the forecast for Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production by 1 million tons to 178 million tons due to excessive rainfall in central Brazil and drought in Rio Grande do Sul [1] - ANEC predicts that Brazil's soybean meal exports in February 2026 will reach 1.73 million tons, lower than the previous estimate of 1.82 million tons, but higher than January 2026 and February 2025, setting a record high for the same period. The forecast for Brazil's soybean meal exports in 2026 is 24 million tons, higher than 23.25 million tons in 2025 [1] - US soybean exports continue to be strong, and the lower - than - expected shipments from Brazil in February may reduce the expected arrival in April, leading to a significant increase in soybean meal prices [1] Oils and Fats - The US Environmental Protection Agency will submit a new biofuel blending volume authorization proposal to the White House on Wednesday, and the rule may be finalized by the end of March. The market is concerned about whether the proposal will increase the target usage of biodiesel and renewable diesel, which will significantly support soybean oil demand and prices [1] - According to SPPOMA data, from February 1 - 25, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil yield decreased by 16.78% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.1% month - on - month, and production decreased by 16.25% month - on - month [2] - US soybean oil is supported by US biofuel policies and shows a strong trend. During the holiday, Malaysian palm oil is in a stage of weak supply and demand. It is estimated that the inventory in February will decline again, but the large original inventory will suppress the near - term rebound height [2]