玖龙纸业（02689）：量价齐升，浆纸协同助力盈利修复

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Nine Dragons Paper Holdings Limited (2689.HK) is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the report indicates a positive outlook based on performance metrics and market conditions [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Nine Dragons Paper achieved a revenue of 37.221 billion yuan for FY26H1, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.966 billion yuan, which is a significant increase of 318.8% year-on-year [1]. - The company's sales volume reached 12.4 million tons during the reporting period, with an average price of 3002 yuan per ton, reflecting increases of 100 thousand tons and 66 yuan per ton year-on-year, respectively [2]. - The report emphasizes the synergy between pulp and paper operations, which has contributed to profit recovery, with a notable increase in profitability per ton despite rising costs [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY2025, the total revenue is projected at 63.241 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1.767 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 135% [5]. - The forecast for FY2026 estimates total revenue of 71.392 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 13%, and a net profit of 4.039 billion yuan, indicating a growth of 129% [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for FY2026 is projected to be 0.86 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 9.35 times [5]. Product Segment Analysis - The report details that the cultural paper segment saw a revenue increase of 40.9% year-on-year, while the white card paper sales surged by 133.3% [2]. - The pricing for waste paper and boxboard products has shown a positive trend, with increases of 8.6% and 16.9% respectively in Q4 [2]. - The company is expected to enhance its pulp self-sufficiency, which will improve profitability in pressured product categories, particularly in the white card segment [3]. Capacity and Future Outlook - As of December 2025, Nine Dragons Paper's design capacity for paper production reached 25.4 million tons, with raw material capacity at 8.2 million tons [3]. - The company plans to focus on expanding its pulp production capacity, with new projects set to come online in 2026 and 2027, which will further optimize overall costs [3]. - Capital expenditures are expected to decrease to 11 billion yuan in FY26 from 12.8 billion yuan in the previous year, alleviating some financial pressure from depreciation and interest expenses [3].