养殖产业链日报：近月宽松明显-20260226

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - The industry is at a critical game stage between short - term price pressure and long - term capacity clearance. The sustainability of the far - month contract's rise needs near - month inventory reduction, and policy regulation and the culling of reproductive sows from March to May will determine the future market trend [3] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Soybean - The soybean market is currently stable. Some grain depots have basically completed purchases, and imported soybeans have risen. It's the peak consumption and restocking season, so market demand is concentrated. However, the supply - demand imbalance is obvious, and there's no clear short - term improvement direction. The soybean price has reached its low point and will show an oscillating upward trend [1] Corn - In the Shandong and northern regions, cold air and snow have reduced the temperature, making corn storage easier. The pressure on farmers to sell grain after the Spring Festival has decreased, but the amount of corn on the market is small. The inventory of feed and deep - processing enterprises is at a safe level, limiting the upward space of corn prices. The low price of corn may fluctuate in the short term, but the downward space is limited. Buying can be considered during price drops [1] Egg - Currently, inventories at all levels have accumulated, and downstream demand is in the early stage of recovery. Egg prices may fluctuate weakly around the opening price in the short term, and all parties will focus on inventory digestion. In February, the number of culled laying hens may be greater than the supply of newly - hatched laying hens, so the inventory of laying hens in production may decline slightly but still remain at a high level, with limited price support. After March, the driving force of the slight decline in inventory is almost exhausted, and further clarity on culling is needed for egg prices to rise [2] Pig - Official data shows that the inventory of reproductive sows in December 2025 was 39.61 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.29 million, indicating a continuous trend of capacity reduction. The inventory of reproductive sows in sample enterprises in January increased by 0.0353 million to 6.7123 million, showing that large - scale farms slightly replenished at low prices. The survival rate of piglets dropped to 93.73%, a decrease of 0.41 percentage points, potentially affecting the spring piglet supply. In January, the pig inventory decreased by 0.03085 million to 56.5446 million, and the monthly slaughter volume decreased by 0.05704 million to 13.149 million, in line with the seasonal slowdown during the Spring Festival. The slaughter weight changed little, and the supply structure was not extremely adjusted [2]