螺纹日报：减仓回落-20260226

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term rebound of rebar prices lacks momentum, and the market is currently dominated by weak reality. Although there are certain policy easing expectations, the weak demand far exceeds seasonal expectations. The supply - side reduction helps relieve medium - term inventory pressure, but cannot reverse the supply - demand pattern in the short term. The inventory pressure is controllable, and the industry's overall risk is less than in previous years. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of construction sites after March [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The rebar main contract reduced its position by 35,772 lots on Thursday, with a lower trading volume than the previous trading day (689,799 lots). The short - term average daily line broke through the 5 - day moving average, but there was still pressure from the 30 - day and 60 - day moving averages. The lowest price was 3050 yuan/ton, the highest was 3083 yuan/ton, and it closed at 3064 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton or 0.23% [1] - Spot price: The mainstream area's HRB400E 20mm rebar spot was quoted at 3210 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [1] - Basis: The futures were at a discount of 146 yuan/ton to the spot, and the basis was still large [2] Fundamental Data - Supply - demand situation: - Supply side: Before the Spring Festival, the weekly rebar production declined from a high. In the week of February 26, 2026, the rebar production was 1.651 million tons, 52,800 tons less than the previous week and 414,000 tons less year - on - year. The 2026 production was significantly lower than the same period from 2023 - 2025, indicating that steel mills actively cut production around the Spring Festival to cope with weak demand and inventory pressure [3] - Demand side: Terminal demand dropped precipitously and was at a historical low. In the week of February 26, 2026, the current apparent demand was only 335,500 tons, 546,000 tons less than the previous week and 1.5716 million tons lower year - on - year, at the lowest level in the same period in the past three years. This was mainly due to the seasonal off - season caused by construction site shutdowns and stagnant terminal procurement around the Spring Festival, and the decline far exceeded previous years, indicating weaker expectations for demand recovery this year [3] - Inventory side: Both factory and social inventories increased, and the total inventory was still lower year - on - year. Factory inventory was 232,840 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11,770 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 14,300 tons. Social inventory was 567,760 tons, a week - on - week increase of 72,790 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 614,100 tons. The total inventory was 800,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 84,560 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 628,400 tons. Although the week - on - week increase was significant, the year - on - year decrease was still large, indicating that the overall industry inventory pressure was less than in previous years [3][4] - Inventory - to - sales ratio: It was at a high level, reflecting the imbalance between supply and demand. The current inventory - to - sales ratio was 167.04, a significant year - on - year increase to 135.35. A high inventory - to - sales ratio meant that the current inventory level was much higher than the demand digestion capacity, and the supply - demand mismatch was serious, which would suppress the rebound space of steel prices until the demand improved substantially [4] - Cost and profit: The steel mill profitability rate was stable, and the cost support was weakening marginally. The steel mill profitability rate was maintained in the 38% - 40% range, and the profit could support blast furnace production. However, pressure was emerging on the raw material side: the iron ore port inventory exceeded 170 million tons, reaching a five - year high; coking coal imports continued to increase, and the cost support was weakening [4] - Macroeconomic aspect: In 2026, policy expectations were rising at the start of the "14th Five - Year Plan". Central budgetary investment, underground pipe network, and urban renewal projects were issued in advance, and the expectation of infrastructure support was strengthened. However, in the short term, affected by the 10% tariff imposed by the US on imported goods, market sentiment was cautious. Coupled with the uncertainty of the demand recovery rhythm after the Spring Festival, the market entered a "policy game period" [4] Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: The Two Sessions are about to be held, the absolute inventory level is still at a historical low, policy expectations are rising, and the supply side is contracting [5] - Bearish factors: Terminal demand continues to be sluggish, cost support is weakening, inventory is continuously accumulating, the de - stocking speed is slowing down, and the capital position structure is bearish [5] Short - term View Summary - After a volume - increasing and position - reducing rebound yesterday, there was a position - reducing and volume - shrinking decline today, indicating that some long positions left the market today, and the confidence of going long was slightly insufficient. The upper pressure should be focused on the overlap of the 30 - day and 60 - day moving averages. In the medium term, it is still in a weak operation. Fundamentally, it is currently dominated by weak reality, and there are certain policy easing expectations. The data from the Steel Union this week shows the typical off - season performance around the Spring Festival, with stable production, stagnant demand, and inventory accumulation being the regular rhythm, but the weakness of the demand side this year far exceeds seasonal expectations. The supply - side active contraction: the steel mills' production reduction is significant, which helps relieve the medium - term inventory pressure, but cannot reverse the supply - demand pattern in the short term. The inventory pressure is controllable: although the week - on - week increase is large, the total inventory is still significantly lower than in the previous three years, indicating that the overall industry risk is less than in previous years, leaving room for subsequent demand recovery. The high inventory - to - sales ratio and weak demand will continue to suppress rebar prices, and the short - term rebound power is insufficient. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of construction sites after March [5]