PP日报：震荡下行-20260226

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - As of the week ending February 20, the downstream operating rate of PP dropped 11.78 percentage points to 30% due to the Spring Festival holiday. The overall downstream operating rate of PP declined seasonally. On February 26, new maintenance units were added, causing the PP enterprise operating rate to fall to around 80%, and the production proportion of standard-grade drawstring to drop to about 25%. During the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventory increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons, and on Thursday, the morning petrochemical inventory decreased by 5,000 tons to 870,000 tons, 60,000 tons lower than the same period last lunar year. Currently, petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level compared to the same period in previous years. The cost side is affected by the US - Iran negotiation and US crude oil inventory, with oil prices remaining stable. There is a slight increase in maintenance units recently. The market quotation is generally stable with minor fluctuations. After the festival, the downstream factories have not fully restarted, and the improvement of the PP supply - demand pattern is limited. The market still anticipates the anti - involution of the chemical industry, and the resumption progress of downstream production after the festival should be monitored. Due to new production capacity in plastics and the high operating rate compared to PP, and the concentrated demand for plastic mulch not yet starting, the L - PP price spread should continue to be narrowed [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - As of the week ending February 20, the downstream operating rate of PP dropped 11.78 percentage points to 30%. On February 26, new maintenance units were added, the PP enterprise operating rate fell to around 80%, and the drawstring production proportion dropped to about 25%. During the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventory increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons, and on Thursday, it decreased by 5,000 tons to 870,000 tons, 60,000 tons lower than the same period last lunar year. The cost side is affected by the US - Iran situation and US crude oil inventory, with oil prices stable. The market quotation is stable with minor changes. After the festival, the improvement of the PP supply - demand pattern is limited. The market anticipates the anti - involution of the chemical industry. Due to new plastic production capacity and high operating rate, and no concentrated demand for plastic mulch, the L - PP price spread should be narrowed [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The PP2605 contract increased in positions and oscillated downward, with a minimum price of 6666 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6782 yuan/ton, and a final closing price of 6675 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.89%. The position volume increased by 27,684 lots to 507,462 lots [2]. Spot - Most spot prices of PP in various regions declined. The drawstring was quoted at 6310 - 6850 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - On February 26, new maintenance units were added, the PP enterprise operating rate fell to around 80%, and the drawstring production proportion dropped to about 25%. During the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventory increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons, and on Thursday, it decreased by 5,000 tons to 870,000 tons, 60,000 tons lower than the same period last lunar year. Currently, petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level compared to the same period in previous years [4]. Raw Material End - The Brent crude oil 05 contract fell below 71 US dollars/barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at 835 US dollars/ton [5].