热卷日报：减仓回落-20260226

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The hot-rolled coil futures market is in a game stage of "weak reality, strong expectation". The fundamentals are dominated by inventory accumulation and weak demand, putting short-term pressure on prices. However, the improvement in export profits, the resilience of steel mill production, and policy expectations form the bottom support, limiting the downside space. It is suggested to be cautiously bearish, and in the medium term, still pay attention to the pressure near the 30-day and 60-day moving averages [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The main contract of hot-rolled coil futures reduced its positions by 8,357 lots on Thursday, with a trading volume of 319,835 lots, a contraction compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,205 yuan, the high was 3,241 yuan. In terms of the daily average line, the short-term fell back to the 5-day moving average, and the pressure of the 30-day and 60-day moving averages in the medium term still exists. It closed at 3,220 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan, a gain of 0.16% [1]. - Spot price: The price of hot-rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,250 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [2]. - Basis: The basis between the spot and futures prices was 30 yuan [3]. Fundamental Data - Supply side: The output contracted year-on-year and was basically flat month-on-month. The current output was 3.0961 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.1352 million tons and a month-on-month decrease of 0.002 million tons. In 2026, the output was slightly lower than the same period from 2023 - 2025, indicating that steel mills maintained production around the Spring Festival but actively reduced production capacity to cope with weakening demand [4]. - Demand side: The demand decreased significantly year-on-year and slightly month-on-month. The current apparent demand was 2.6837 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5396 million tons and a month-on-month decrease of 0.013 million tons. The significant year-on-year decline was mainly due to the seasonal impact of manufacturing shutdowns and stagnant terminal purchases around the Spring Festival. The slight month-on-month decline reflected that the post-festival demand recovery rhythm this year was weaker than in previous years [4]. - Inventory side: The social inventory increased significantly, and the total inventory was still lower year-on-year. The factory inventory was 947,800 tons, a month-on-month increase of 14,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 33,400 tons. With basically flat output and weakening demand, the factory inventory accumulated slightly. The social inventory was 3.5737 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 169,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 134,100 tons. Traders replenished their stocks before the festival, and the replenishment intensity was greater than in previous years. The total inventory was 4.5215 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 183,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 0.5888 million tons. Although it increased significantly month-on-month, it was still significantly lower than the previous three years, indicating that the overall inventory pressure in the industry was less than in previous years [4]. - Inventory-to-sales ratio: It was at a high level, showing the pressure of supply and demand. The current inventory-to-sales ratio was 11.79 days, a significant year-on-year increase to 2.34. A high inventory-to-sales ratio means that the current inventory level is much higher than the demand digestion capacity, and the supply-demand mismatch is serious, which will suppress the rebound space of hot-rolled coil prices until the demand substantially recovers [5]. - Policy side: There were intertwined internal and external disturbances, and policy expectations dominated sentiment. Domestically, the "14th Five-Year Plan" was about to be launched in 2026, and the Two Sessions were approaching. The market's expectations for policies such as infrastructure investment, equipment renewal, and trade-in were rising, but the actual project implementation rhythm after the festival was not yet clear. Internationally, the United States imposed a 10% tariff on imported goods starting from February 24, triggering concerns about global trade frictions and potentially suppressing export-oriented steel products. In terms of liquidity, the People's Bank of China conducted a 1-trillion-yuan 6-month outright reverse repurchase on February 13, releasing medium- and long-term liquidity and providing marginal support to market sentiment [5]. Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Supply contraction, demand resilience, and policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment) [6]. - Bearish factors: Slow demand realization, drag from the raw material end, inventory accumulation suppressing prices, and increased macro disturbances [6].