铁矿日报：宏观向好预期仍存，需求表现一般-20260226

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The iron ore market has limited room for further decline in the short term and is expected to have a strong and upward - trending rebound. This is due to the inventory accumulation, limited recovery of backend demand, positive macro - expectations supported by the upcoming Two Sessions, and the futures still showing a BACK structure under a positive basis [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market行情态势回顾 - The main contract of iron ore futures fluctuated during the day, closing at 748.5 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton or 0.53% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 190,000 lots, the open interest was 541,000 lots, with an increase of 12,000 lots, and the settled funds were 8.902 billion yuan. After the iron ore price dropped to around the predicted support level of 730, it showed certain resistance to decline, and a short - term strong rebound is expected [1]. - The mainstream spot prices at ports decreased slightly. The PB powder at Qingdao Port was 750 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan, and the Super Special powder was 638 yuan/ton, also down 2 yuan. The main swap contract was 98.85 (+0.05) US dollars/ton. After the swap rebounded strongly, it entered a narrow - range oscillation, while the spot prices declined slightly [1]. - The basis of Qingdao Port PB powder converted to the futures price was 36.8 yuan/ton, and the basis widened slightly. The spread between the May and September contracts of iron ore was 16.5 yuan, and the spread between the September and January contracts was 11.5 yuan [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, and Australian shipments recovered. The arrivals at ports continued to weaken due to weather influence, but are expected to pick up later. On the demand side, the molten iron output increased month - on - month, the profitability rate of steel mills weakened, and the rigid demand increased marginally. Attention should be paid to the post - holiday demand support [2]. - In terms of inventory, the iron ore port inventory stopped increasing. The decline in arrivals and the restocking of steel mills alleviated the port inventory accumulation pressure, but the overall inventory pressure is still building up. The relaxation of real - estate purchase restrictions in Shanghai boosted the market sentiment, but the short - term impact on real demand may be limited. With the upcoming Two Sessions after the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the changes in market sentiment [2]. Macro - level Analysis - Domestically, during the Spring Festival, travel, consumption, and key economic data in January showed differences. The social financing at the beginning of January was stable. The government's financing was strong, highlighting the policy front - loading tendency. The private sector's financing met expectations. The long - term loans of residents were weak, but the short - term consumer loans were strong. The corporate loans seemed weak but were actually stable, mainly affected by bond financing extrusion, PSL investment, and policy transmission lag. The Spring Festival date shift also had an impact on the social financing reading, and the data from January to February should be observed comprehensively [3]. - Overseas, the US economy showed a slowdown in overall expansion and structural differentiation in multiple fields. The GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter of the US slowed down significantly, with personal consumption being the main drag, and inflation stickiness still existed. The overall pattern was weak domestic demand, cooling growth, and significantly different recovery rhythms among various sectors [3].