塑料日报：震荡下行-20260226

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The plastic market is in a state of oscillating downward. Although there are expectations for the chemical industry to counter the involution, the improvement in the plastic supply - demand pattern is limited. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production progress of downstream enterprises after the Spring Festival. Due to the recent new plastic production capacity coming on - stream, the operating rate is higher than that of PP, and the concentrated demand for mulch film has not yet started, so continue to shrink the L - PP price spread [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Contents Market Analysis - On February 26, new maintenance devices such as the old full - density line 2 of Dushanzi Petrochemical were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to about 92%, currently at a moderately high level. As of the week of February 13, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 13.93 percentage points to 19.8% week - on - week. During the Spring Festival, most downstream enterprises shut down for holidays, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE declined seasonally. The petrochemical inventory increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons during the Spring Festival, and on Thursday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 5,000 tons to 870,000 tons, 60,000 tons lower than the same period last lunar year, at a neutral level in recent years. In terms of cost, the market is concerned about the US - Iran negotiation and worried about the Iranian situation, but the US crude oil inventory has significantly increased, and the crude oil price is basically stable. New production capacities of 500,000 tons/year of BASF (Guangdong) FDPE and 300,000 tons/year of Yulong Petrochemical LDPE/EVA were put into production in January 2026 [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The plastic 2605 contract increased positions and oscillated downward, with a minimum price of 6,660 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,816 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,668 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a decline of 1.96%. The position increased by 42,552 lots to 550,407 lots [2]. - Spot: The PE spot market mostly declined, with price changes ranging from - 100 to + 50 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,620 - 6,970 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,230 - 8,960 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6,800 - 8,040 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On February 26, new maintenance devices such as the old full - density line 2 of Dushanzi Petrochemical were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to about 92%, currently at a moderately high level [1][4]. - Demand: As of the week of February 13, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 13.93 percentage points to 19.8% week - on - week. During the Spring Festival, most downstream enterprises shut down for holidays, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE declined seasonally [1][4]. - Inventory: The petrochemical inventory increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons during the Spring Festival, and on Thursday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 5,000 tons to 870,000 tons, 60,000 tons lower than the same period last lunar year, at a neutral level in recent years [1][4]. - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 05 contract fell below $71/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $705/ton week - on - week, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $685/ton week - on - week [4].