瑞达期货不锈钢产业日报-20260226

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The raw material supply of ferronickel is expected to shrink. The Philippines is entering the rainy season, the nickel ore grade is decreasing, and the raw material inventory of domestic ferronickel plants is tightening. Indonesia plans to significantly cut the RKAB quota next year, leading to potential production cuts in ferronickel [2]. - The production profit of stainless - steel plants has improved, but the rising ferronickel price has pushed up the cost. With increased maintenance during the Spring Festival, the production decline has alleviated supply pressure [2]. - Downstream demand is in the traditional off - season, but stainless - steel exports maintain high growth, showing strong export demand. Social inventory has entered the seasonal accumulation stage, but the overall inventory pressure is controllable. The report expects stainless - steel futures prices to adjust with a slight upward trend [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 14,265 yuan/ton. The spread between the 2004 - 05 contracts is - 5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous period [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 9,740 hands. The position of the main contract is 77,985 hands, a decrease of 6,890 hands [2]. - The warehouse receipt quantity is 60,810 tons, unchanged from the previous period [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 304/2B rolled stainless steel in Wuxi is 14,950 yuan/ton. The market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,350 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of stainless steel is 225 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly ferronickel production is 21,400 metal tons, unchanged [2]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 23,861.23 tons, an increase of 11,020.74 tons. The monthly import volume of ferronickel is 996,100 tons, an increase of 100,700 tons [2]. - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 143,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,250 yuan/ton. The average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) in the country is 1,080 yuan/nickel point, an increase of 20 yuan/nickel point [2]. - The monthly Chinese chromite production is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.8581 million tons, an increase of 110,900 tons. The weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 571,100 tons, an increase of 13,900 tons [2]. - The monthly stainless - steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 587.6996 million square meters, an increase of 53.1326 million square meters [2]. - The monthly production of excavators is 37,300 units, an increase of 3,700 units. The monthly production of large and medium - sized tractors is 32,100 units, an increase of 9,500 units. The monthly production of small tractors is 10,000 units, an increase of 1,000 units [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The US Trade Representative Greer said that the US will continue the 301 investigation on China's implementation of the Phase - One Economic and Trade Agreement and may take tariff measures [2]. - Chinese Premier Li Qiang held talks with German Chancellor Merz. China is willing to strengthen cooperation with Germany in traditional and emerging fields [2]. - As of the end of January, the inventory of the national passenger - car industry was 3.57 million vehicles, a decrease of 80,000 vehicles compared to the previous month and an increase of 580,000 vehicles compared to the same period last year [2].