瑞达期货沪锌产业日报-20260226

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that Shanghai zinc will experience oscillatory adjustments and maintain a range - bound operation. The upstream zinc ore imports are at a high level, but domestic zinc mines reduce production at the end of the year. Domestic smelters face increased competition in purchasing domestic ores, with significantly lower domestic and foreign processing fees and shrinking profits, so production is expected to be further restricted. The export window may close again due to the decline in LME zinc prices and the rise in the Shanghai - LME ratio. On the demand side, the downstream market is turning to the off - season, with the real estate sector dragging down, and the infrastructure and home appliance sectors weakening. Although there are some bright spots in the automotive sector due to policy support, downstream procurement is mainly on - demand at low prices, and the spot premium remains low. The domestic social inventory has increased significantly, while the LME zinc inventory is stable and the spot premium is also low. Technically, the position volume decreases and the price adjusts, with less trading between long and short positions [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 24,570 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan; the 04 - 05 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is - 55 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quotation is 3,387 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.5 US dollars. The total position of Shanghai zinc is 185,072 lots, a decrease of 710 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 1,038 lots, a decrease of 514 lots. The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 0 tons, unchanged. The SHFE inventory is 87,025 tons, an increase of 16,336 tons; the LME inventory is 99,825 tons, a decrease of 1,425 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 24,460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 24,310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan. The basis of the ZN main contract is - 110 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan. The LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 29.64 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2.29 US dollars. The ex - factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 21,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,850 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 35,700 tons, a decrease of 14,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 7,700 tons, a decrease of 4,900 tons. The global zinc ore production is 1.0627 million tons, a decrease of 11,900 tons. The domestic refined zinc production is 675,000 tons, an increase of 21,000 tons. The zinc ore import volume is 462,600 tons, a decrease of 53,900 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 8,760.85 tons, a decrease of 9,469.07 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 27,266 tons, a decrease of 15,548 tons. The zinc social inventory is 138,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.36 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.36 million tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons. The new housing construction area is 587.6996 million square meters, an increase of 53.1326 million square meters; the housing completion area is 603.4813 million square meters, an increase of 208.942 million square meters. The automobile production is 3.4115 million vehicles, a decrease of 107,500 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 21.6289 million units, an increase of 6.6029 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc is 5.15%, a decrease of 16.33 percentage points; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc is 9.62%, a decrease of 11.86 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money option for zinc is 38.77%, an increase of 0.09 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money option for zinc is 19.78%, unchanged [3]. 3.7 Industry News - The US Trade Representative Greer said that the US will continue to promote the 301 investigation into China's implementation of the China - US Phase One Economic and Trade Agreement and may take tariff measures. Chinese Premier Li Qiang held talks with German Chancellor Merz. Li Qiang said that China is willing to use dialogue mechanisms such as the bilateral government consultations with Germany, strengthen the docking of development strategies and policy communication and coordination, expand and optimize bilateral trade, revitalize traditional cooperation in the automotive and chemical industries, and expand cooperation in emerging fields such as artificial intelligence and biomedicine. The secretary - general of the Passenger Car Association, Cui Dongshu, said that at the end of January, the inventory of the national passenger car industry was 3.57 million vehicles, a decrease of 80,000 vehicles compared with the previous month and an increase of 580,000 vehicles compared with the same period last year. The "global import tariff" rate may reach 15% [3].