瑞达期货沪镍产业日报-20260226

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that nickel prices will adjust in a volatile and upward - trending manner [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 141,040 yuan/ton, a decrease of 210 yuan; the 04 - 05 contract spread of Shanghai nickel is - 500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan [3] - The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 1,804.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 130 dollars; the position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 205,915 lots, an increase of 167,651 lots [3] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 57,159 lots, a decrease of 2,688 lots; the LME nickel inventory is 287,808 tons, an increase of 480 tons [3] - The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 58,775 tons, an increase of 1,318 tons; the LME nickel cancelled warrants total 15,594 tons, an increase of 3,336 tons [3] - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 53,158 tons, a decrease of 19 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 nickel is 143,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,250 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals is 143,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,450 yuan [3] - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 33,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the NI main contract is 2,660 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,040 yuan [3] - The LME nickel (spot/3 - month) premium is - 204.15 dollars/ton, a decrease of 4.52 dollars [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 1.9928 million tons, a decrease of 1.3467 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 10.706 million tons, a decrease of 0.3793 million tons [3] - The average monthly import price of nickel ore is 75.53 dollars/ton, an increase of 3.36 dollars; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of ferronickel is 21,400 metal tons, unchanged [3] - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 23,861.23 tons, an increase of 11,020.74 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 996,100 tons, an increase of 100,700 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.109 million tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.8581 million tons, an increase of 571,100 tons [3] 3.6 Industry News - The US Trade Representative Greer said that the US will continue to advance the 301 investigation into China's implementation of the first - phase economic and trade agreement and may take tariff measures [3] - Chinese Premier Li Qiang held talks with German Chancellor Merz. Li Qiang said that China is willing to use dialogue mechanisms such as the inter - government consultations with Germany, strengthen the docking of development strategies and policy communication and coordination, expand and optimize bilateral trade, and promote traditional cooperation in the automotive and chemical industries to gain new effectiveness and expand cooperation in emerging fields such as artificial intelligence and biomedicine [3] - Cui Dongshu, the secretary - general of the Passenger Car Association, said that at the end of January, the inventory of the national passenger car industry was 3.57 million vehicles, a decrease of 80,000 vehicles month - on - month and an increase of 580,000 vehicles year - on - year [3] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - Macroscopically, Chinese and German enterprises can continue to deepen cooperation in machinery, equipment, and chemical industries. The US may impose a "global import tariff" with a rate of up to 15% [3] - Fundamentally, the rainy season in the Philippines has led to a decline in nickel ore imports. Indonesia will significantly cut the RKAB quota next year, but the quota for the first quarter will be postponed, and the raw material contraction is expected to be felt in the second quarter. An accident in the Indonesian IMIP park has strengthened the expectation of resource tightness [3] - In the smelting sector, the production of ferronickel in Indonesia remains high, and the quantity flowing back to China is expected to increase. China has large refined nickel production capacity. With the recent rise in nickel prices, there is a profit margin, and the production of refined nickel is expected to rise again [3] - In terms of demand, the profit of stainless steel plants has improved, but due to the Spring Festival, there are many maintenance and production cuts, and the output in February is expected to decline significantly. The production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to rise, and ternary batteries contribute a small increase in demand [3] - China's nickel inventory continues to grow, and the market mainly purchases on dips, with high spot premiums. The LME inventory overseas continues to grow, and the spot premium is lowered [3] - Technically, the increase in positions and the rise in prices indicate a strong bullish atmosphere [3]