瑞达期货贵金属期货日报-20260226

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The current correction in the precious metals market is not a trend reversal but a digestion of the shock at a phased high, and the long - position structure of the market remains stable [2]. - The overall trend of silver still follows the price fluctuation of gold. After a relatively full correction, some long - position funds have re - flowed into the silver market. The rigid growth of industrial demand in new energy and AI data centers is expected to offset the pressure brought by the slowdown in silver use for photovoltaics, and the tight inventory pattern will still amplify the upward elasticity of silver prices [2]. - In the short term, precious metals will fluctuate around the three main lines of the Fed's policy inflection point, the US dollar trend, and geopolitical risks. In the long - term, the bull - market framework of precious metals has not changed significantly, and the overall approach should be to buy on dips [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 1,146.48 yuan/gram, down 4.6 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 22,572 yuan/kilogram, down 457 yuan [2]. - The main - contract positions of Shanghai Gold decreased by 3,433 hands to 151,642 hands, and those of Shanghai Silver decreased by 791 hands to 8,949 hands [2]. - The main - contract trading volumes of Shanghai Gold decreased by 29,130 to 169,407, and those of Shanghai Silver decreased by 55,549 to 357,610 [2]. - The warehouse - receipt quantity of Shanghai Gold remained unchanged at 105,072 kilograms, and that of Shanghai Silver decreased by 9,461 kilograms to 346,369 kilograms [2]. - Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 1,144.51 yuan/gram, down 1.13 yuan; the spot price of Huatong No.1 silver was 21,797 yuan/kilogram, up 157 yuan [2]. - The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract was - 1.97 yuan/gram, up 3.45 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract was - 775 yuan/kilogram, up 614 yuan [2]. - Supply and Demand - The SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 3.43 tons to 1,097.62 tons, and the SLV Silver ETF holdings decreased by 28.18 tons to 16,079.74 tons [2]. - The non - commercial net long positions of gold in CFTC decreased by 97 to 159,915 contracts, and those of silver increased by 1,048 to 24,003 contracts [2]. - The total quarterly supply of gold was 1,302.80 tons, down 0.19 tons; the total annual supply of silver was 32,056 tons, up 482 tons [2]. - The total quarterly demand for gold was 1,345.32 tons, up 79.57 tons; the total annual demand for silver was 35,716 tons, down 491 tons [2]. - Macro Data - The US dollar index was 97.66, down 0.24; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.77%, down 0.01% [2]. - The VIX volatility index was 17.93, down 1.62; the CBOE gold volatility index was 34.96, down 2.59 [2]. - The ratio of the S&P 500 to the gold price was 1.34, down 0.01; the gold - silver ratio was 57.24, down 0.88 [2]. 2. Industry News - US President Trump delivered his first State of the Union address in his second term, announcing that he would continue to impose tariffs through other legal means, and proposed to replace personal income tax with tariff revenue. He also expressed a preference for diplomatic solutions to the Iranian nuclear issue [2]. - Fed Governor Cook said that AI has caused a generational change in the US labor market, which may lead to an increase in the unemployment rate, and the Fed may face a dilemma in monetary policy [2]. - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said that it is not appropriate to cut interest rates further until there is more evidence that inflation is continuously falling [2]. - Japanese Prime Minister Takamichi Sanae expressed concerns about the Bank of Japan's further interest - rate hikes during a meeting with BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda [2]. 3. Key Points of Attention - On February 26 at 21:30, the US unemployment - claim data for the week ending February 21 will be released; on February 27 at 21:30, the US PPI monthly and annual rates for January will be released [2].