尿素日报：成交活跃度下降-20260226

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Urea futures opened lower and weakened during the day. Spot prices were mainly stable, but trading activity decreased due to the decline in futures. The upstream supply is stable, with a daily output of 210,000 tons. The inventory increased by more than 10% during the holiday period, but the rate of increase will slow down and turn into a destocking phase. The downstream compound fertilizer production capacity utilization rate has reached 33.41%. The overall market is expected to be more likely to rise than to fall [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - Urea futures opened lower and weakened during the day. Spot prices were mainly stable, and trading activity decreased due to the decline in futures. The upstream plants had no shutdowns, and there were still plans for plant restart. During the spring farming season, there were no large - scale long - term maintenance plans. The downstream is expected to resume work after the Lantern Festival. The inventory increased by more than 10% during the holiday, but the rate of increase will slow down. The compound fertilizer production capacity utilization rate increased to 33.41%, and it is expected to rise significantly after the Lantern Festival. The agricultural demand is positive, and the market is expected to be more likely to rise than to fall [1] 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The main urea contract 2605 opened at 1,839 yuan/ton, closed at 1,836 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.49%. The trading volume decreased by 3,657 lots to 251,601 lots. Among the top 20 positions, long positions increased by 394 lots and short positions decreased by 1,559 lots. On February 26, 2026, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 5,958, a decrease of 2,140 from the previous trading day [2] - Spot: Spot prices were mainly stable, and trading activity decreased due to the decline in futures. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was mostly in the range of 1,780 - 1,810 yuan/ton [3] 3.3. Fundamental Tracking - Basis: The mainstream spot market quotation increased, and the futures closing price decreased. Based on the Henan region, the basis strengthened compared with the previous trading day. The basis of the May contract was - 6 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton [7] - Supply Data: On February 26, 2026, the national daily urea output was 216,500 tons, unchanged from the previous day, and the operating rate was 86.77% [8] - Enterprise Inventory Data: As of February 25, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.176 million tons, an increase of 341,300 tons or 40.89% compared with the previous week. As of February 27, 2026, the pre - order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 7.12 days, a decrease of 2.29 days or 24.34% compared with the previous period [12] - Downstream Data: From February 21 to February 27, the compound fertilizer production capacity utilization rate was 33.41%, an increase of 8.91 percentage points compared with the previous week. The average weekly production capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 55.91%, a decrease of 8.26 percentage points compared with the previous week [13]