Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-H" with a current price of HKD 9.07 and a fair value of HKD 17.80 [6]. Core Views - The report emphasizes the long-term potential of Meilan Airport as a key hub in the Hainan Free Trade Port, particularly following the successful completion of the acquisition of controlling interest by Hainan Airport [9][10]. - The airport's passenger throughput in January was 2.7398 million, with a year-on-year decline of 5.4% due to the Spring Festival's timing, but a significant increase of 16.5% compared to 2019 [9]. - The report forecasts a robust recovery in passenger traffic and cargo volume, driven by the release of benefits from the Free Trade Port policies and the expected increase in international flights [10][11]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023A: RMB 2,086 million - 2024A: RMB 2,171 million - 2025E: RMB 2,165 million - 2026E: RMB 2,510 million - 2027E: RMB 2,810 million - The growth rates are projected at 82.7% for 2023, 4.1% for 2024, -0.3% for 2025, 15.9% for 2026, and 12.0% for 2027 [5][16]. Operational Data - Passenger throughput is expected to reach: - 2025: 26.85 million - 2026E: 28.95 million - 2027E: 31.02 million - The report anticipates a rebound in domestic routes and a significant increase in international routes, with a projected growth rate of 20% for international flights in 2026E [10][11]. Revenue Breakdown - The revenue from aviation-related services is expected to be: - 2025E: RMB 1,064 million - 2026E: RMB 1,283 million - 2027E: RMB 1,418 million - Non-aviation revenue is projected to grow significantly, driven by duty-free sales and other services [14][16]. Valuation - The discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis estimates the total fair value of the company at approximately HKD 84.2 billion, translating to a fair value per share of HKD 17.80 [10][18].
美兰空港（00357）：1月季节性修复，看好自贸港机场长期潜力