航运策略周报：EMC线上跟随调降至2530美元/FEU，美伊开启第三轮间接谈判-20260226

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report's outlook is "Oscillation" [5] Core Viewpoints - The market is currently dominated by price - reduction expectations. In the spot market, MSK's price - reduction strategy in March is aggressive, while the decline of PA may be slower. OCEAN's freight rate has increased slightly by about $100/FEU compared to late February, and shipping companies are still trying to maintain prices on other routes. There are still risks of capacity recovery and shipping companies' price - increase announcements in the second half of March. The market is more optimistic about the freight rates from May to June than the near - term. Attention should be paid to the impact of the third round of indirect negotiations between the US and Iran on geopolitical sentiment and the new price - increase announcements from shipping companies and the fluctuation direction of the spot market [1][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Freight and Contract Volume - Price - MSK opened the freight rate for the second week of March, with a week - on - week reduction of $100/FEU. OOCL's online freight rate was also reduced, making it difficult to realize the increase in spot freight rates. ONE and YML may show a slow - decline trend in the first half of March. The 04 contract is dominated by off - season expectations, with a larger decline than the far - month contracts. The 04 main contract closed at 1236 points, down 5.13%, and the total open interest increased by more than 800 lots; the 05 contract closed at 1414.8 points, down 2.7%, with a total open interest of 395 lots; the 06 contract closed at 1621.1 points, down 3.3%, and the open interest increased slightly by 287 lots to 16,600 lots; the 07 contract was the highest among all contracts, closing at 1812 points, down 0.8% [1] Spot Freight Data - The comprehensive index of SCFI is 1251.5 points. The freight rate of the Nordic route is $1361/TEU, and the SCFIS of the Nordic route is 1573.51 points, down 2.1%. The freight rate of the Mediterranean route is $2177/TEU. The freight rate of the US West route is $1787/FEU, and the SCFIS of the US West route is 1112.01 points, down 1.7%. The freight rate of the US East route is $2524/FEU [9] Trade - Sino - US economic and trade relations have stabilized, and China's overall external environment has improved, which is an important background for the strengthening of the RMB. On February 26, the offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar appreciated to a maximum of 6.83605 during the session, an appreciation of more than 0.25% compared to the previous trading day. The IMF expects the US economic growth rate in 2026 to be 2.4%, consistent with the forecast in the January "World Economic Outlook" (WEO). The transmission of tariffs to US consumer prices may be lower than expected, leading to a more forward - moving inflation decline process and stronger economic activities, but trade uncertainties may drag down economic activities [2] Geopolitics - The Iranian negotiation team arrived at the diplomatic representative office of Oman in Geneva to participate in the third round of indirect negotiations with the US. The main members of the Iranian negotiation team include Foreign Minister Araqchi, Deputy Foreign Minister Ravanchi, and Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi [5]