银河期货粕类日报-20260226

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: "粕类日报 2026 年 2 月 26 日" [1] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [2] - Date: February 26, 2026 [3] Group 2: Market Quotes Futures and Spot Prices - Soybean Meal: The closing prices of contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 3008, 2834, and 2951 respectively, with price changes of 19, 3, and 15. The spot basis in Tianjin, Dongguan, Zhangjiagang, and Rizhao shows different changes [3]. - Rapeseed Meal: The closing prices of contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 2295, 2296, and 2361 respectively, with price changes of 2, -16, and -3. The spot basis in Nantong, Guangdong, and Guangxi also shows different changes [3]. Monthly Spreads - Soybean Meal: The 15 - spread is 174 (up 16 from yesterday), the 59 - spread is -117 (down 12 from yesterday), and the 91 - spread is -57 (down 4 from yesterday) [3]. - Rapeseed Meal: The 15 - spread is -1 (up 18 from yesterday), the 59 - spread is -65 (down 13 from yesterday), and the 91 - spread is 66 (down 5 from yesterday) [3]. Cross - Variety Spreads - Soybean - Rapeseed 05 Spread: 538 (up from 519 yesterday) - Soybean - Rapeseed 09 Spread: 590 (up from 572 yesterday) - Oil - Meal Ratio 01: 2.893 (down from 2.906 yesterday) [3] Spot Spreads - Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal: 544 (up 43 from yesterday) - Rapeseed Meal - Sunflower Meal: 140 (down 30 from yesterday) - Soybean Meal - Sunflower Meal: 814 (up 3 from yesterday) [3] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis International Market - US Soybeans: The carry - over stock of soybeans remains at around 350 million bushels, higher than market expectations. Although US soybean exports have improved, the overall supply - demand situation is still relatively loose [4]. - South American Market: Brazil's new soybean crop is growing well, and the harvest is progressing smoothly. The monthly supply - demand report has raised Brazil's soybean production forecast. Brazil's old - crop exports and crushing are good, but the subsequent crushing drive may be limited. Argentina's old - crop soybean production is relatively large, and its crushing and exports have increased significantly [4]. Domestic Market - Soybean Meal: The domestic spot supply is gradually recovering. The oil mill's operating rate has increased recently, but the overall quantity is less than before. The提货量 has also decreased slightly, and the inventory is in a downward trend. As of February 20, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills is 37,200 tons, the operating rate is 1.02%, the soybean inventory is 5.1954 million tons (an increase of 421,500 tons or 8.83% from last week, and an increase of 181,200 tons or 3.61% year - on - year), and the soybean meal inventory is 842,500 tons (an increase of 3,100 tons or 0.37% from last week, and an increase of 343,700 tons or 68.91% year - on - year) [6]. - Rapeseed Meal: The domestic rapeseed meal demand is generally average. The oil mill's operating rate has increased compared with last week. As of the week of February 20, the crushing volume is 0 tons. The rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories have increased but are still at a low level. The supply pressure still exists, and it is expected to be in a relatively volatile state [6]. Group 4: Logical Analysis - US Soybeans: After the macro - drive stabilizes, US soybeans are affected by weather. The positive factors have been fully reflected, and it is relatively difficult to rise further [7]. - South American Market: There are some weather disturbances in South America, mainly in the southern region. Although it affects the soybean harvest in some areas of Brazil, the impact on production is relatively limited. The high - level quotes in South America are mainly due to the incomplete reflection of pressure, and it is expected to be in a volatile state [7]. - Domestic Market: The domestic soybean meal market is running strongly, mainly affected by market information, but the actual impact is limited. The shipping volume is relatively low, which may have an impact on subsequent supply, but the overall quantity is still relatively sufficient. The monthly spread may face downward pressure. The domestic rapeseed meal market is relatively strong due to the influence of soybean meal, but there may be pressure due to the improvement of supply from the macro - aspect. The monthly spread of rapeseed meal also has certain pressure. The subsequent supply of soybean meal is tight, but the spot price is mainly downward, and the soybean - rapeseed meal spread is expected to expand [7]. Group 5: Trading Strategies - Single - Side Trading: Adopt a bearish approach [8] - Arbitrage: Expand the MRM spread [8] - Options: Mainly adopt the strategy of selling wide straddles [8] Group 6: Soybean Pressing Profits - The pressing profits from Brazilian soybeans of different shipping months (May, June, July, and August) show different changes, with positive changes in the pressing profit compared with yesterday [9]