白糖日报-20260226

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - International sugar prices are expected to maintain a low - level oscillation in the short term, and Zhengzhou sugar will also maintain a bottom - oscillating trend in the long run. Short - term attention should be paid to whether the previous high can be effectively broken through [9][10] - For trading strategies, for the single - side, maintain the bottom - oscillating view; for arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see attitude; for options, sell put options in the short term [10][11][12] Summary by Directory First Part: Data Analysis - Futures Disk: SR09 closed at 5,301, up 34 (0.65%), with a trading volume of 51,265 (an increase of 25,547) and an open interest of 137,901 (an increase of 9,758); SR01 closed at 5,423, up 28 (0.52%), with a trading volume of 1,484 (a decrease of 15) and an open interest of 6,647 (an increase of 376); SR05 closed at 5,285, up 37 (0.71%), with a trading volume of 341,075 (an increase of 166,563) and an open interest of 462,071 (an increase of 15,849) [3] - Spot Price: In different regions, the spot price of white sugar in Liuzhou was 5,380 (up 10), in Kunming was 5,190 (up 20), in Wuhan was 5,630 (unchanged), in Nanning was 5,370 (up 20), in Bayuquan was 5,435 (unchanged), in Rizhao was 5,510 (up 35), and in Xi'an was 5,770 (up 10). The corresponding basis was 95, - 95, 345, 85, 150, 225, and 485 respectively [3] - Monthly Spread: The SR05 - SR01 spread was - 138 (up 9), the SR09 - SR05 spread was 16 (down 3), and the SR09 - SR01 spread was - 122 (up 6) [3] - Import Profit: For Brazilian imports, with an ICE main contract price of 14.77, a premium of 0.25, and a freight of 38.00, the in - quota price was 3,846, the out - of - quota price was 4,880, the spread with Liuzhou was 500, the spread with Rizhao was 630, and the spread with the futures market was 543. For Thai imports, with an ICE main contract price of 14.77, a premium of 0.89, and a freight of 18.00, the in - quota price was 3,798, the out - of - quota price was 4,817, the spread with Liuzhou was 563, the spread with Rizhao was 693, and the spread with the futures market was 606 [3] Second Part: Market Judgment - Important Information: On February 25, India's Food Ministry announced a domestic sugar sales quota of 2.25 million tons for March 2026, a decrease of 50,000 tons compared to the same period last year. The domestic market is expected to remain bullish. Since mid - February, sugar mills in Maharashtra have begun to end their crushing operations, which will help reduce the market's oversupply. The Indian Sugar and Bio - energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) released the third forecast data for the 2025/26 sugar - making season on February 25. The total sugar production (before ethanol diversion) is expected to be 32.409 million tons, the ethanol diversion is expected to be 3.1 million tons, and the net sugar production (after ethanol diversion) is expected to be 29.292 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12%. As of the end of February, Nanning and Qinzhou in Guangxi are expected to have one sugar mill each stop crushing, but due to rainfall, the plan may change, and the first wave of stops is expected to be concentrated in early March. The sugar production in Guangxi in the 2025/26 season is estimated to be around 7 million tons, but the production estimate is still unclear due to the delayed progress [5][6] - Logical Analysis: Internationally, Brazil's sugarcane crushing is almost over, and its sugar exports have decreased, so the market's focus has shifted to the Northern Hemisphere. Most sugar production in the Northern Hemisphere is in an increasing cycle. Although India's sugar production is at a high level in the same period over the years, the recent increase has significantly narrowed, and the final output may be slightly higher than expected but with a small increase. After the US Supreme Court overturned Trump's global tariffs during the holiday, Brazil may export more sugar and ethanol to the US, and the US sugar price has risen after hitting the bottom. In the domestic market, the domestic white sugar is currently in the peak crushing period, and the sugar production in this season is likely to increase significantly, so there is some pressure on the supply side. However, considering the low futures price and the sharp rise in international sugar prices during the holiday, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend [9] - Trading Strategies: Single - side: International sugar prices are expected to maintain a low - level oscillation in the short term, and Zhengzhou sugar will also maintain a bottom - oscillating trend in the long run. Short - term attention should be paid to whether the previous high can be effectively broken through. Arbitrage: Adopt a wait - and - see attitude. Options: Sell put options in the short term [10][11][12] Third Part: Relevant Diagrams - The report provides 10 diagrams, including those showing monthly inventory and production in Guangxi and Yunnan, spot prices in Liuzhou, price spreads between Liuzhou and Kunming, and various basis and price spreads of white sugar futures [14][16][18]