国投期货黑色金属日报-20260226

Report Investment Ratings - Thread Steel: ★☆★ [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ★★★ [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆★ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicomanganese: ★☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The market confidence is insufficient, and the rebound of the steel plate is facing setbacks with repeated rhythms. Attention should be paid to market trends and relevant policy changes. The supply of iron ore is in excess, and although the demand has marginal improvement expectations, the supply pressure is greater. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream iron - water is at a low level in the off - season. The market has strong expectations for next month's meeting policies, and the prices of coke, coking coal, silicomanganese, and ferrosilicon may have upward drivers [2][3][4] Summary by Category Steel - The steel plate fell today. After the festival, the apparent demand for thread steel increased month - on - month, with low production and continued inventory accumulation. The demand for hot - rolled coils increased month - on - month, with stable production and continued inventory accumulation. Due to poor steel mill profits and insufficient downstream carrying capacity, the iron - water production remained at a relatively low level. The real estate investment decline continued to expand, and the new - house sales during the Spring Festival were poor. The investment growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing continued to decline, and the overall domestic demand was still weak, while steel exports remained high [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore plate fluctuated today. The global shipment increased significantly month - on - month, and the domestic port inventory was at a historical high. The expectation of iron ore supply surplus was still strong. After the festival, the terminal demand recovered, and the iron - water production continued to resume, but there were certain production - restriction disturbances around the Two Sessions. Overall, the demand for iron ore had marginal improvement expectations, but the supply surplus pressure was relatively greater, and the recent plate price was suppressed [3] Coke - The coke price fell during the day. The coking profit was average, and the daily production decreased slightly. The coke inventory increased slightly, and the purchasing willingness of traders was average. Overall, the carbon element supply was abundant, the downstream iron - water was at a low level in the off - season, the steel profit level was average, and the price - pressing sentiment for raw materials was still strong. The coke plate had a premium, and the coking coal plate had a premium over Mongolian coal. The market had certain expectations for relevant policies, and the price might have upward drivers [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal price fell during the day. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal was 1,477 vehicles yesterday. The production of coking coal mines increased slightly. The spot auction transactions were inversely proportional to the plate fluctuations. Affected by the plate price fluctuations, the transaction prices mainly decreased slightly, and the terminal inventory increased significantly. The total coking coal inventory increased significantly, and the production - end inventory increased slightly. The winter - storage demand was coming to an end. Overall, the carbon element supply was abundant, the downstream iron - water was at a low level in the off - season, the steel profit level was average, and the price - pressing sentiment for raw materials was still strong. The coke plate had a premium, and the coking coal plate had a premium over Mongolian coal. The market had strong expectations for next month's meeting policies, and the price might have upward drivers [6] Silicomanganese - The silicomanganese price increased significantly during the day. The South African electricity price still had an upward - adjustment driver in the 206 fiscal year, which had little impact on manganese ore mining. Attention should be paid to whether the export tax rate would be adjusted. The spot manganese ore transaction price increased slightly, and the plate entered a non - arbitrage space with relatively limited downward space. The manganese ore port inventory might start to slowly increase, and the mine - end shipment increased month - on - month, but the mine cost had increased compared with previous years, and the price - concession space might be relatively limited. The iron - water production at the demand end remained at a seasonal low level. The weekly production of silicomanganese increased slightly, and there was hardly any significant downward - driving force. The silicomanganese inventory increased slightly. The market had strong expectations for next month's meeting policies, and it was likely to fluctuate strongly [7] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price increased slightly during the day. The power cost in some production areas decreased, the semi - coke price remained flat, and the main production areas were still mainly in losses, but the Inner Mongolia production area turned profitable. The iron - water production at the demand end remained at a low level in the off - season. The export demand remained above 30,000 tons, with little marginal impact. The metal magnesium production increased month - on - month, and the secondary demand increased marginally. The overall demand still had resilience. The ferrosilicon supply changed little, and the inventory decreased slightly. The market had strong expectations for next month's meeting policies, and it was likely to fluctuate strongly [8]