橡胶、棉花涨势放缓

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes various agricultural products, including their current market conditions, influencing factors, and future outlooks. Overall, the market is characterized by a mix of bullish and bearish factors, with different products showing different trends such as oscillation, upward or downward movement [1][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Oils and Fats - Viewpoint: Oils and fats are oscillating and falling. Palm oil exports are weak, dragging down the high - level of oils and fats. Soybean oil is affected by US biodiesel policy expectations and export demand, while rapeseed oil is supported by crude oil and US soybean oil [1][5]. - Outlook: Soybean oil oscillates, palm oil oscillates, and rapeseed oil oscillates. It is recommended to focus on the strategy of buying at stage - low prices [2][5]. 3.2. Protein Meal - Viewpoint: The market's enthusiasm for chasing up is low, and the upward momentum of the market is weak. International factors include the progress of US biodiesel policy and the harvest of Brazilian soybeans. Domestically, the market's chasing - up sentiment is not high, and attention should be paid to the impact of South American soybean arrivals and state - reserve auctions [5]. - Outlook: Both soybean meal and rapeseed meal oscillate. After the festival, the supply and demand of soybean and rapeseed meals are both weak, and capital fluctuations intensify [5]. 3.3. Corn - Viewpoint: Corn is in high - level consolidation. The upstream sales enthusiasm has increased slightly, and the downstream has a certain demand for replenishment. Attention should be paid to the game between farmers' sales rhythm and downstream replenishment rhythm, as well as the impact of imported grains [5][6]. - Outlook: It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. Pay attention to the downstream replenishment rhythm and traders' delivery and inventory - building rhythms [5][6]. 3.4. Pigs - Viewpoint: Supply and demand are loose, and pig prices are oscillating at a low level. In the short term, the daily slaughter volume has increased, and in the long term, the pressure of over - supply will gradually weaken in the second half of 2026 [7]. - Outlook: It is expected to oscillate weakly in the first half of the year, and the industry is advised to focus on hedging opportunities by short - selling at high prices. The pig cycle is expected to gradually bottom out and pick up in the second half of 2026 [7][8]. 3.5. Natural Rubber - Viewpoint: The market is in high - level oscillation. Although the price has a certain adjustment demand, the market sentiment is still bullish, and the fundamentals support the price to be easy to rise and difficult to fall [9][10]. - Outlook: The fundamentals have limited variables, and the market maintains oscillation [10]. 3.6. Synthetic Rubber - Viewpoint: The inventory data is high, and the market is weak. The decline is due to weak butadiene trading and high inventory. However, the mid - term core logic of tight butadiene supply in the first half of 2026 remains unchanged [11]. - Outlook: The supply - demand pattern of butadiene is expected to improve, but it needs adjustment in the short term and maintains a mid - term oscillating and strengthening trend [11]. 3.7. Cotton - Viewpoint: The price has risen and then fallen, and it is advisable to take phased profits. Although there is a long - term upward drive, there is a lack of new upward momentum in the short term [12]. - Outlook: It is expected to oscillate strongly in the long - term. It is recommended to take phased profits for previous long positions and maintain the idea of buying on dips in the long - term [12]. 3.8. Sugar - Viewpoint: India's production increase expectation is lowered, and sugar prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the medium - long term. The global sugar market in the 25/26 season is expected to have an oversupply [13][14]. - Outlook: It is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to maintain the idea of short - selling on rebounds [14]. 3.9. Pulp - Viewpoint: The spot market has not returned to normal, and futures fluctuate with the financial atmosphere. The demand is expected to improve seasonally, but the supply quotation is flat, resulting in a situation of mixed bullish and bearish factors [15]. - Outlook: It maintains an oscillating trend within a range. It is recommended to focus on a long - position configuration at the low end of the range after the festival [15]. 3.10. Double - Glue Paper - Viewpoint: The double - glue paper market is oscillating in a narrow range. Supply and demand changes are limited, and there is no clear upward or downward driving force [16]. - Outlook: It is expected to be stable in the short term and oscillate within a range [16]. 3.11. Logs - Viewpoint: Factories resume work late, and the market is oscillating in the short term. The demand is weak, but the external quotation increase drives the bottom valuation up [17][18][19]. - Outlook: It maintains an oscillating trend within a range in the short term, and there is a risk of weakening after the peak season in the first - quarter [19].